Aldebury ROC Entrance Tunnel - Ashley Burton

The Subterranean War on Science? A comment.

Aldebury ROC Entrance Tunnel - Ashley BurtonLast week saw the publication of an article entitled “The Subterranean War on Science” in the Association of Psychological Science’s Observer magazine. The authors – scientists from a range of disciplines – reflect on their experiences of their work becoming noticed in public. In particular, they argue that the harassment, bullying and abuse of scientists constitute a ‘war on science’ which should be publicised, with a view to “enable lawmakers to improve the balance between academic freedom and confidentiality of peer review on the one hand, and the public’s right to access information on the other”.

I submitted a ‘below the line’ comment to the piece on Friday. Unfortunately, the comment does not seem to have made it through moderation so I reproduce it below. Any thoughts – on topic please – much appreciated. In short, while bullying and harassment should not be tolerated anywhere in society, I am unconvinced as to the need for new laws to protect a particular (relatively powerful) section of society:

Interesting piece, thanks. Some practical issues spring to mind as a result:

1) How does one differentiate between ‘vexatious’ or ‘trivial’ requests for data and those which are merited? The authors give the example of timestamps for blogposts as trivial, but one could imagine occasions when such information might be quite important. There appears to be an appeal to lawmakers to act in the final paragraph. Is this really the best way to proceed? An ethics committee containing a rich mix of personnel drawn from different sections and strata of society (ie not just academics) might provide better, context-specific judgements.

2) 3rd party re-analysis of data is surely a staple of science. Of course, those doing so may have particular motivations (as in the Philip Morris example), but one would have a hard time preventing this taking place. Recent history shows the perils for scientific credibility of not making data available.

3) The piece vividly depicts some troubles and tribulations of science (and indeed, life) in the modern world. However, it might benefit from a stronger counterpoint than the final paragraph’s nod to the “public’s right to access to information”. The activities of climate sceptics may well represent an “insertion into the scientific process”, and I do not offer a blanket defence of their multifarious criticisms and approaches. In particular, where bullying is identified it should not be tolerated anywhere in modern society. However, the arrival of online fora has demonstrated that the public are not always a passive group waiting for the latest scientific knowledge to be visited upon them. On occasion they can be somewhat unruly and, if sufficiently motivated, they may wish to “insert themselves” in any way they can with the limited tools available to them; especially as members of the public do not enjoy the same access to journals as academics. This may be an inconvenient truth, but it is also a fact of modern life. With better systems for dealing with this, we can hopefully focus more on transparent and robust methods of managing conflicts – both legitimate and otherwise – between science and society, rather than seeking to devise new laws to protect the former from the latter.

UPDATE: the authors have responded to this post here: http://shapingtomorrowsworld.org/lskymannSubter.html


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Comments

128 responses to “The Subterranean War on Science? A comment.”

  1. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    @JasonB

    No, it implies that I’m responding to the suggestion that those scientists would have incorrectly rated their papers …

    You volunteered as a “For example…” ‘skeptical scientists’. I didn’t see anyone suggest that example to you. You say my reading of you suggesting volunteer bias existing within some scientists in the respondents was wrong…

    Which is what I (eventually) realised and corrected as soon as I did. And now you are trying to tell me that I’m wrong about what I meant?

    I am still not sure about what mean when you say about the scare quoted “skeptical” scientists as being: “…pretty much guaranteed to ensure that any paper they wrote that challenges the consensus would definitely be characterised by them as doing so,…”

    I mean, for a start, how could “skeptical” scientists know what the “consensus” looks like in order to correctly challenge it? Do you think the “consensus” is only considered by “skeptical” scientists when rating here on Cooks paper? Who started making an assumption about meaning and more importantly motives here again? Not me.

    Even you acknowledged just a few posts back that a paper that attributed 49% to humans should have been classified under this category and now you are claiming that “a scientist whose paper says that humans cause 49% of global warming cannot put his paper into category 3 or higher” is not true???

    Well as you pre-anticipated about my slip-shod example. 😉

    <

    blockquote>I wouldn’t expect 49% to appear, but it’s hardly relevant.

    <

    blockquote>

    It is an exception, an extreme hypothetical example of a scientist who said to himself “I have gone to trouble of quantifying AGW really, really, accurately in this paper and lo! I see the quantifying option number 1 beckons.” It is an extreme example of the quantifier mindset, or maybe a “consensus” scientist? 😉

    I repeat the point I made earlier: The results are advertised as endorsing of the proposition that “human activity is causing global warming”. Where quantification is present in the paper, “is causing” is spelt out to mean “more than half”.

    See, now I think you are getting mixed up.

    I can’t see how this has any meaning regarding the subject of what is shown to the self rating scientists. See what I highlighted above? If you are still talking about the subject of what the surveyed scientists have to go on prior to making their decisions (and I know I am), don’t you agree that “the paper” can’t have been shown to the scientists before it came out?

    I mean, were the results so powerfully advertised that they went back in time and informed the scientists of the papers’ purpose? 😉

    <

    blockquote>Because “most” is a quantification. Your new level 2 is indistinguishable from level 1, with a description that directly contradicts the level’s name.

    <

    blockquote>

    OK then. So we can’t use the word “most” before global warming in Levels 2 and 3 because it is a quantification. How are the selection of Levels 2 and 3 able to imply anything about any level of implicit or explicit decision by an author regarding humans causing “most” of global warming then without the word “most” being allowed in their definition?

    If there is no explicit statement to that effect and the research is not predicated on GHG’s being responsible, then it’s a level 4. Level 4 is the true catch-all clause, and that’s where most of the papers ended up. Reading your comments make it seem like you think level 3 is illegitimately filling that role, but it’s not.

    The neutral category is defined thus:

    4. Neutral:paper doesn’t address or mention issue of what’s causing global warming.

    Knowing this definition seems to me you imply there is no category to place this hypothetical paper, that starts in its main non-abstract body, by saying …

    “We propose that the global warming today caused by human and natural effects can be mitigated in the following way…”

    … doesn’t it?

    I mean if the paper starts this way, and the scientist knows he started it this way, he may even remember his feelings on the day about why he started it that way, but he also remembers the explicit instruction that informs him“we are not asking about your personal opinion but whether each specific paper endorses or rejects “.

    So this means he can’t put it in 4, since he knows his paper “mention[s] issue[s] of what’s causing global warming”

    … doesn’t it?

    Under which level definition should this hypothetical paper go do you think?

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  2. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    Now hopefully with correct indentation! If you want, please delete my identically worded November 16, 2013 at 1:16 am comment, thanks 🙂

    @JasonB

    No, it implies that I’m responding to the suggestion that those scientists would have incorrectly rated their papers …

    You volunteered as a “For example…” ‘skeptical scientists’. I didn’t see anyone suggest that example to you. You say my reading of you suggesting volunteer bias existing within some scientists in the respondents was wrong…

    Which is what I (eventually) realised and corrected as soon as I did. And now you are trying to tell me that I’m wrong about what I meant?

    I am still not sure about what mean when you say about the scare quoted “skeptical” scientists as being: “…pretty much guaranteed to ensure that any paper they wrote that challenges the consensus would definitely be characterised by them as doing so,…”

    I mean, for a start, how could “skeptical” scientists know what the “consensus” looks like in order to correctly challenge it? Do you think the “consensus” is only considered by “skeptical” scientists when rating here on Cooks paper? Who started making an assumption about meaning and more importantly motives here again? Not me.

    Even you acknowledged just a few posts back that a paper that attributed 49% to humans should have been classified under this category and now you are claiming that “a scientist whose paper says that humans cause 49% of global warming cannot put his paper into category 3 or higher” is not true???

    Well as you pre-anticipated about my slip-shod example. 😉

    I wouldn’t expect 49% to appear, but it’s hardly relevant.

    It is an exception, an extreme hypothetical example of a scientist who said to himself “I have gone to trouble of quantifying AGW really, really, accurately in this paper and lo! I see the quantifying option number 1 beckons.” It is an extreme example of the quantifier mindset, or maybe a “consensus” scientist? 😉

    I repeat the point I made earlier: The results are advertised as endorsing of the proposition that “human activity is causing global warming”. Where quantification is present in the paper, “is causing” is spelt out to mean “more than half”.

    See, now I think you are getting mixed up.

    I can’t see how this has any meaning regarding the subject of what is shown to the self rating scientists. See what I highlighted above? If you are still talking about the subject of what the surveyed scientists have to go on prior to making their decisions (and I know I am), don’t you agree that “the paper” can’t have been shown to the scientists before it came out?

    I mean, were the results so powerfully advertised that they went back in time and informed the scientists of the papers’ purpose? 😉

    Because “most” is a quantification. Your new level 2 is indistinguishable from level 1, with a description that directly contradicts the level’s name.

    OK then. So we can’t use the word “most” before global warming in Levels 2 and 3 because it is a quantification. How are the selection of Levels 2 and 3 able to imply anything about any level of implicit or explicit decision by an author regarding humans causing “most” of global warming then without the word “most” being allowed in their definition?

    If there is no explicit statement to that effect and the research is not predicated on GHG’s being responsible, then it’s a level 4. Level 4 is the true catch-all clause, and that’s where most of the papers ended up. Reading your comments make it seem like you think level 3 is illegitimately filling that role, but it’s not.

    The neutral category is defined thus:

    4. Neutral:paper doesn’t address or mention issue of what’s causing global warming.

    Knowing this definition seems to me you imply there is no category to place this hypothetical paper, that starts in its main non-abstract body, by saying …

    “We propose that the global warming today caused by human and natural effects can be mitigated in the following way…”

    … doesn’t it?

    I mean if the paper starts this way, and the scientist knows he started it this way, he may even remember his feelings on the day about why he started it that way, but he also remembers the explicit instruction that informs him“we are not asking about your personal opinion but whether each specific paper endorses or rejects “.

    So this means he can’t put it in 4, since he knows his paper “mention[s] issue[s] of what’s causing global warming”

    … doesn’t it?

    Under which level definition should this hypothetical paper go do you think?

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  3. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    Ha! I boo-booed again “and lo! I see the quantifying option number 1 beckons.” Forgot already, should be 7 beckoning.

    I guess I am not a quantifier 😉

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  4. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    Sheesh missed one, this should have been in quotes in my comment November 16, 2013 at 1:36 am:

    OK then. So we can’t use the word “most” before global warming in Levels 2 and 3 because it is a quantification. How are the selection of Levels 2 and 3 able to imply anything about any level of implicit or explicit decision by an author regarding humans causing “most” of global warming then without the word “most” being allowed in their definition?

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  5. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    Sorry! My last correction was wrong, this is the paragraph that should be quoted in my comment November 16, 2013 at 1:36

    If there is no explicit statement to that effect and the research is not predicated on GHG’s being responsible, then it’s a level 4. Level 4 is the true catch-all clause, and that’s where most of the papers ended up. Reading your comments make it seem like you think level 3 is illegitimately filling that role, but it’s not.

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  6. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    One thing I agree on with JasonB is that a preview facility would be nice! 🙂

    I have a further comment that I think actually comes back to touch on the headline topic of this page!

    @JasonB

    To address the point you made about the stated purpose of the Cook et al paper to provide a scienifc figure for “consensus” to help correct the apparent discrepancy in puplic perception and therefore implying changing political will for action.

    And this is important. In a democracy, it is important that the people know the truth. You are free to try to convince people that it doesn’t matter that the overwhelming majority of experts in a field have come to accept something as true, but it doesn’t mean that the people don’t have a right to know that the overwhelming majority of experts in a field have come to accept something as true. At the moment, studies show that people don’t know that, and based on the response to this paper, there are a lot of people who would prefer they didn’t.

    This concept of sorting out a “consensus” in a scientific discipline for the benefit of democracy is interesting. If not strange.

    In an article at Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists the lead author John Cook had this to say on this subject:

    While our sample was admittedly a small portion of the global climate science community, we nevertheless found more than 10,000 scientists in more than 80 countries publishing climate papers that endorse the consensus.

    Although President Obama tweeted our research to more than 31 million followers on the day after it was published, and later mentioned the 97 percent consensus in his landmark speech calling for climate action, public perception has not yet caught up with the science.

    And the President Obama tweet Cook references held this message:

    Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous. Read more: [Link to article on Cooks paper]

    I think this actually helps come back on topic for this page: the idea of a “Subterranean War on Science” i.e. sections of the public/politics illegitimately “inserting” themselves into the scientific process.

    But aren’t Cook et al and Lewandowsky and the other authors doing something that could be seen as the reverse? Trying to “insert” their science into the political process? If they are, is that any more legitimate?

    It certainly seems problematic. You may notice above that the lead author of Cook et al has, in a circular way, endorsed a politicians endorsement back on his paper? And without correcting that politicians over statement.

    This comes back to the clear indication from you that the “consensus” is not only something that needs to be agreed to help the lay public understanding, but something that could be in turn affecting the thinking process of scientists.

    When you say about the scare quoted “skeptical” scientists as being: “…pretty much guaranteed to ensure that any paper they wrote that challenges the consensus would definitely be characterised by them as doing so,…”

    This definitely inserts the idea that the “consensus” now is not just something that exists to help public perception, but something that is feeding back on scientists themselves!

    At least on the “skeptical” scientists. I noticed you have avoided addressing the clear implied corollary that this meta “consensus” awareness must be exist also with non-“skeptical” scientists. Maybe making them keen to defend it?

    It seems to me this quest for reifying a “consensus” in the science means there is now a polarising and distorting effect coming back onto the science.

    The fact you scare quoted “skeptical” is an indicator of this happening to me.

    It seems now that any scientist who genuinely had no consideration of his position on any “consensus” spectrum in his discipline, but just engaged on what he felt to be interesting and rewarding work, could now plough on regardless of the “consensus” in an unbiased way and then find results that surprised and excite him, but turn out to effectively “challenge” the “consensus”.

    He didn’t start, or even end, with a desire merely to “challenge” this “consensus”. But now, in this “consensus” world, it seems he can be easily dismissed and scare quoted. Effectively slurred as having been motivated to “challenge” the “consensus” – you see how that bounces back?

    If you want to accuse peer reviewed scientists of the base prior motive of “challenging” the consensus then why not assume the opposite desire exists in spades to “support” the consensus?

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  7. chris Avatar
    chris

    tlitb1,
    that’s an interesting question, although you’ve rather overloaded your presentation with words and phrases that are both leading and misleading!

    Any scientist knows where the consensus lies in his/her research area. The consensus defines the areas that are largely firmly established. It’s very important to know this since the aim of doing science is to extend and refine knowledge and understanding. It’s not that interesting to rediscover stuff that we already are pretty sure about (although there is a certain value in this, perhaps quite a strong one in a subject like climate science).

    So it’s important to remember the nature and origin of a scientific consensus. It defines areas that are relatively uncontroversial in relation to a knowledgeable and honest assessment of the evidence. It’s very useful for policymakers and the public to know the areas that are well-supported by a strong evidence base. Obviously, if one is making policy in a particular arena with a potentially strong scientific input then one should make it on the basis of strong scientific evidence. It’s that evidence that generates a particular consensus, and one should be aware of the strong interlinking of consensus and evidence.

    There’s no question that scientists might “plough on regardless” and make discoveries that “challenge the consensus”. Fine…that’s part of the point of doing science. Your idea that scientists might be so influenced by some consensus position that they would be influenced not to disturb it by finding/reporting contrary interpretations doesn’t ring true. Most scientists are truly engaged in finding out what is real in relation to the natural world.

    One might add that scientists are very likely to “defend” the consensus position under circumstances that obviously wrong research is published. Note however that they are not defending a “consensus” per se, but defending justifiable methodological research approaches and interpretations in relation to well-established methodologies and understanding.

    As usual it helps to consider all of these points in relation to real world examples. Here’s an example (we could come up with quite a few of these):

    Two rather well known “skeptics” (Dr’s John Christy and Roy Spencer) developed a method for estimating tropospheric temperatures using microwave sounding units (MSU). This was an excellent innovation; however Christy/Spencer got their analyses rather hopelessly wrong at several levels for a long period between around 1991 and 2005. Their erroneous analyses certainly “challenged the consensus”. In fact it became obvious that their analyses (cooling or minimal tropospheric warming) must be wrong and eventually in 2005 other researchers dealt the scientific coup de gras (!) in several pages of Science by highlighting the (then) most recent of the fundamental errors in the Christy/Spencer analysis.

    Note that the assessment of the contrary interpretations by other researchers was not made in order to “defend the consensus”. It was made in order to explore a fundamental divergence between a specific set of interpretations and a large body of knowledge and understanding, and to establish valid analyses of an important methodology. In effect the consensus position was reestablished but this wasn’t the aim of the researchers who identified the misanalyses. Their aim was to advance the science by establishing scientifically valid methodology and interpretations.

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  8. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    @chris November 16, 2013 at 10:30 am

    that’s an interesting question, although you’ve rather overloaded your presentation with words and phrases that are both leading and misleading!

    Well, um, thanks I guess. However, until you give a me a hint of which “words and phrases” and ways of misleading I used, I can’t really reply to that can I?

    I can reply to the rest of your comment though.

    I could accept everything you say in the rest of your comment regarding the idea of a consensus with a few conditions.

    In climate science I would say there most probably is a utilitarian consensus in various sub-areas, some more broader than others. However, in climate science there alsocertainly exists the “consensus”.

    I think the non-scare quoted consensus (i?) is perfectly reasonable in all the context you used.

    Any scientist knows where the consensus lies in his/her research area. The consensus defines the areas that are largely firmly established. It’s very important to know this since the aim of doing science is to extend and refine knowledge and understanding. It’s not that interesting to rediscover stuff that we already are pretty sure about (although there is a certain value in this, perhaps quite a strong one in a subject like climate science).

    I agree and I would additionally say this scientist isn’t subjected to official or regular assessments of their own work being within or outside the “consensus”. They are left to meet discuss and form opinions on various areas of consensus only as a tacit agreement they are needed and used only by the scientists for the purpose of aiding the best way to make their efforts work. Some high rollers may deliberately try to look outside the consensus knowing it is a free area that may provide a lucky break. This idea of a scientific consensus can have no external political consequences.

    However, among all the scientific disciplines, it seems that climate science is unique in having (the now literal) The Consensus Project. And with Cook et al its express aim is to inform the public and through a chain of influences effect policy action.

    There is no equivalent The High Energy Physics Consensus Project. Designed to help educate the public that most scientists think the Higgs Boson is a real entity, and so therefore encourage the public to support further funding for particle accelerators 😉 Is there?

    So it’s important to remember the nature and origin of a scientific consensus. It defines areas that are relatively uncontroversial in relation to a knowledgeable and honest assessment of the evidence.

    This is fine in itself, but what happens when a consensus is seen as being the “consensus” thus:

    Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous. Read more:

    This means a scientist who makes the discovery that some aspect of danger is low, a discovery that doesn’t unsettle a real world consensus, also has to consider the implications for the “consensus” above.

    This scientist can be reported by the media as minimising danger. Some can say, “but hey didn’t president Obama cite that Cook paper that says all scientist should be saying “climate change is real, man-made and dangerous”?”

    Cook seems willing to allow this idea of the “consensus” to flourish and grow (beyond the level justified by his work) and work it into in the political, public and media sphere. I argue that its unique application has implications on feedback to distort ideas of any real world consensus that scientists operate in, and may damage the quality of work in the climate field.

    For example, in your narrative above, you speak of well known “skeptics”. Using the scare quote in this case clearly implies some doubt to their legitimacy as proper normal sceptical scientists. I think this can only happen and be done in the distorting field of the “consensus” world of climate. In which other scientific fields would that happen with mainstream scientists?

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  9. chris Avatar
    chris

    Well tlitb1, I think again you’re attempting to mislead on quite a simple issue by using leading statements.

    So you say in relation to scientists and scientific consensus: “They are left to meet discuss and form opinions on various areas of consensus only as a tacit agreement they are needed and used only by the scientists for the purpose of aiding the best way to make their efforts work.”

    But who says? A scientific consensus can be used in whatever way one likes. It’s obviously fundamental that scientific consensus plays an important part in policy decisions with a relevant scientific input. You can’t unilaterally define how a consensus should be used to advance a weak argument!

    and your statement “This idea of a scientific consensus can have no external political consequences.” is astonishing! A scientific consensus feeds exactly into political consequences by way of policymaking and public support for policy. The reason that we have strong regulations on cigarettes, or on use of antibiotics as growth promoters in animal feedstuffs (in the EU anyway) is exactly because the scientific evidence supports a strong scientific consensus in these areas.

    The consensus project is the consensus project. It is useful in quantifying what is fundamentally obvious to those that make an honest and informed assessment of the scientific literature, namely that there is a vast and overwhelming published evidence in support of the interpretation that the dominant cause of 20th century and contemporary global warming is anthropogenic enhancement of the greenhouse effect. What is the problem with summarising the evidence in the context of an assessment of the published scientific literature? I don’t really see your problem with this.

    I expect the reason that there isn’t a consensus project in particle physics is because that scientific arena isn’t subject to a ludicrous (and anti-democratic, one might add) industry of misinformation. The consensus project, for what it’s worth, is a reminder/encapsulation of the fact that there is a massive evidence base in support of a particular scientific consensus.

    On “scare quotes” with reference to “skeptics”. I don’t agree with you that the presence of individuals that advance objectively-false arguments under the guise of apparent “skepticism” doesn’t arise in other fields (think ciggie smoking again, or AIDS research or the science of evolution, all of which have or have had their own pseudo”skeptics”).

    On its particular use in my example: normally in coming to interpretations that widely differ from established science, one makes one’s self every effort to establish the nature of the incompatibility (i.e. one displays that most important part of a scientists ethic, namely “self-skepticism”). One doesn’t assert and publicise the notion that one is right and everyone else is wrong in the face of clear evidence to the contrary!

    Of course this doesn’t really matter scientifically-speaking because we, as scientists (and reasonably well-informed members of the non-scientific public), can make scientifically-objective interpretations of analyses that demonstrate a lack of skepticism. Unfortunately the public in general may not be so fortunate and so it’s useful in the face of widespread misrepresention of the science occasionally to highlight the nature of the published scientific evidence that underlies a very strong consensus.

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  10. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    @Chris November 16, 2013 at 2:38 pm

    your statement “This idea of a scientific consensus can have no external political consequences.” is astonishing!

    Yeah, I accept that sentence was a very poor way to express my meaning. I agree there may be eventual external political consequences arising from the fact a certain consensus exists in a scientific field.

    The argument I hold is that the analysis of the consequences of any scientific consensus has several ways to go. Is it passive, after the fact, observing the political consequences after the consensus arose? Or is it preemptive? Is there a drive to say that some claimed observed “consensus” should now have external political consequences?

    I wanted to be dogmatic in my argument against this latter but fluffed the meaning at the last hurdle (JasonB will be able point you to my previous examples of this tendency 😉 ) .

    Well tlitb1, I think again you’re attempting to mislead on quite a simple issue by using leading statements.

    BTW If you want to say I am wrong, or mistaken, or you spotted an error with what I have said because you have better information, then could you please say so explicitly? I notice this is the second time you say I am “misleading” and this time you add the qualifier “attempting “. What am I doing? Both times you say that in your preamble to me without later attaching the claim to any specific example therefore leaving me at a disadvantage to defend! 😉

    If you think I was attempting to be misleading in my “political consequences” statement then I respond it was not “misleading” it was rather a clear error that didn’t serve my own argument well! 😉

    Anyway thanks for spotting that error and prompting me to use more effort. I’m still dogmatic, but I have my idea better composed now when I say that during the evolution of a scientific consensus it should not involve any consideration of its eventual external political consequences.

    A scientific consensus can be used in whatever way one likes. It’s obviously fundamental that scientific consensus plays an important part in policy decisions with a relevant scientific input.

    Well this depends on whether its utilitarian use between scientists in the field is properly understood when later translating this to the public sphere doesn’t it?

    And to reiterate. Read the following statement from President Obama about his understanding of the consensus he derived from Cook et al.

    Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous. Read more:

    I have to ask you now about the concept that “A scientific consensus can be used in whatever way one likes” . Is this the best way to use a consensus or just the “consensus”? Which consensus is being used here? The one in Cooks paper?

    On “scare quotes” with reference to “skeptics”. I don’t agree with you that the presence of individuals that advance objectively-false arguments under the guise of apparent “skepticism” doesn’t arise in other fields (think ciggie smoking again, or AIDS research or the science of evolution, all of which have or have had their own pseudo”skeptics”).

    Well I think it is a given that many, if not most, scientists will experience being found under scrutiny to have “advance[d] objectively-false arguments”. Don’t you?

    The more interesting thing is your follow up claim that some are doing this:

    under the guise of apparent “skepticism”

    Do your scare quotes with Dr’s John Christy and Roy Spencer indicate you feel this is the case with them?

    If so I would say that saying that their skepticism is really a “guise” is something that can’t be easily shown can it? This is more than saying they are wrong or even regularly wrong. This is implying they are somehow motivated to be misleading.

    This may have occurred in other fields of science and been found out – and I assume there is concrete evidence when it does – but your use of the AIDS and tobacco example has no proven relevance to Christy and Spencer having innate pathological behaviour that demands they should be labelled with scare quotes yet does it?

    Labeling Dr’s John Christy and Roy Spencer with scare quotes can’t be justified just because you see cases where they were shown to have written a paper that “advance[d] objectively-false arguments” can it?

    So if not proven scientifically they operate under a “guise” then where do your scare quotes come from?

    I suggest your quotes arise because you have an attachment to the idea of the “consensus”. 😉

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  11. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    BTW to any third party waiting for a proper response from the well know scientists JasonB and chris that I am talking to.
    ….

    I’d like to ask you who do you think they are?

    Do you know who I am?

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  12. JasonB Avatar
    JasonB

    tlitb1
    BTW to any third party waiting for a proper response from the well know scientists JasonB and chris that I am talking to.
    ….

    How can we be well known if you don’t know who we are?

    I’d like to ask you who do you think they are?

    No, that’s not creepy at all…

    Do you know who I am?

    Why would I care? I’m happy to judge you purely on your comments. Martin Luther King Jr would be proud.

    No, it implies that I’m responding to the suggestion that those scientists would have incorrectly rated their papers …

    You volunteered as a “For example…” ‘skeptical scientists’. I didn’t see anyone suggest that example to you. You say my reading of you suggesting volunteer bias existing within some scientists in the respondents was wrong…

    Yes. Let me say it again as plainly as I can: the possibility of volunteer bias never occurred to me until you mentioned it. After you mentioned it, I realised that both volunteer bias and the method of author selection were potential sources of bias that would call into question the apparent agreement between Cook et al’s ratings and the author ratings.

    Faced with a potential issue, what did I do? I investigated it — something you could have easily done yourself before trying to make an issue out of it — and reported the results here. I didn’t find any evidence of bias, although it’s possible that a bias in author selection just happened to be cancelled out by an opposite bias in authors choosing to respond.

    Now, I’ve explained this to you before. If I can’t convince you of the correct meaning of something I wrote, I am not hopeful of convincing you of anything.

    Nevertheless, to address your question: I said “For example, any of the “skeptical” scientists who participated are, I’m sure you agree, pretty much guaranteed to ensure that any paper they wrote that challenges the consensus would definitely be characterised by them as doing so, whether they can claim it’s a “7″ or, in the worst case, have to fall back on a “5″. It beggars belief that they would miss an opportunity to highlight one of their papers in this way having gone to the trouble of getting it published.”

    This was in the context of a (far more fruitful…) discussion with Michael about “the bar”. My claim was that “the bar” was quite high; Michael had claimed that it was, in fact, much lower, because of the definition of level 3. In other words, papers could be counted as endorsing the proposition that he felt should not if the bar was as high as I claimed.

    In the context of that exchange, where there was a concern that the bar was actually lower than advertised, it makes perfect sense to focus on the papers of “skeptical” scientists. My contention was that papers that they had produced that actually challenged the view that GHG emissions were causing global warming would be (correctly) rated by their authors in one of the rejection categories, despite Michael’s concerns about the wording of level 3.

    That’s it. If you insist that I’m wrong about what I said then I feel pretty comfortable dismissing any concerns you have with the wording of what others have said.

    I mean, for a start, how could “skeptical” scientists know what the “consensus” looks like in order to correctly challenge it?

    Are you serious? They may have their own pet theories but they aren’t actually stupid.

    Note, also, that Cook et al didn’t invent “the consensus”, they’re merely reporting on the level of support in the scientific literature for one particular proposition that happens to be very important policy-wise and the subject of heated debate, and what they found is that there is very strong acceptance of the proposition that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing global warming. This is significant because opinion polls show that many people think there is still a lot of disagreement among scientists on this point and that “the science is not settled”, therefore we should postpone action until the scientists have sorted out amongst themselves what’s really going on. The point of this paper is to show that they have, a long time ago.

    I wouldn’t expect 49% to appear, but it’s hardly relevant.

    It is an exception, an extreme hypothetical example of a scientist who said to himself “I have gone to trouble of quantifying AGW really, really, accurately in this paper and lo! I see the quantifying option number 1 beckons.”

    You have a really odd view of how scientists think.

    Anyway, the point is moot, because none of the papers in level 1 or 7 are anywhere near 50%. They’re either all in the 100-150% range, or they’re saying humans can’t be causing it because it would mean higher taxes. /sarc

    I repeat the point I made earlier: The results are advertised as endorsing of the proposition that “human activity is causing global warming”. Where quantification is present in the paper, “is causing” is spelt out to mean “more than half”.

    See, now I think you are getting mixed up.

    I can’t see how this has any meaning regarding the subject of what is shown to the self rating scientists. See what I highlighted above? If you are still talking about the subject of what the surveyed scientists have to go on prior to making their decisions (and I know I am), don’t you agree that “the paper” can’t have been shown to the scientists *before* it came out?

    At the risk of repeating myself: Are you serious? No, “the paper” can’t have been shown to the scientists before it came out, but “the paper” documents the questions that were shown to the scientists. I’m finding it difficult to believe that you actually think you’re making legitimate points.

    OK then. So we can’t use the word “most” before global warming in Levels 2 and 3 because it is a quantification. How are the selection of Levels 2 and 3 able to imply anything about any level of implicit or explicit decision by an author regarding humans causing “most” of global warming then without the word “most” being allowed in their definition?

    As I have (repeatedly) pointed out, the question put to the authors was whether their papers endorsed, rejected, or were neutral on the proposition that human activity (i.e., anthropogenic greenhouse gases) “is causing global warming”. The paper, in turn, states that 97% of papers that state a position on the subject say that human activity (i.e., anthropogenic greenhouse gases) “is causing global warming”. The word “most” only comes up when trying to map “is causing” onto a quantified amount. “Is causing” is the actual proposition, “most” is merely what “is causing” should be interpreted to mean when amounts are involved.

    This isn’t the only possible way to map “is causing”. For example, some might say that as long as it’s the largest individual contributor, that would qualify; but by sticking to a requirement that it actually has to be responsible for more than half they may have thought they were short-circuiting any potential objections that advertising it as “is causing” is misleading if the actual amount was, say, 25%, even if that was the largest individual contributor. They clearly underestimated some people’s determination.

    If there is no explicit statement to that effect and the research is not predicated on GHG’s being responsible, then it’s a level 4. Level 4 is the true catch-all clause, and that’s where most of the papers ended up. Reading your comments make it seem like you think level 3 is illegitimately filling that role, but it’s not.

    The neutral category is defined thus:

    4. Neutral:paper doesn’t address or mention issue of what’s causing global warming.

    Knowing this definition seems to me you imply there is no category to place this hypothetical paper, that starts in its main non-abstract body, by saying …

    “We propose that the global warming today caused by human and natural effects can be mitigated in the following way…”

    … doesn’t it?

    Given the phrase is basically saying “We propose that the global warming today caused by X and everything apart from X can be mitigated in the following way…” — i.e. it doesn’t address the issue of what is causing global warming because it simply lists all of them — I would classify it as a neutral. Unless, of course, you think there might be supernatural forces at work as well that it specifically is not addressing!

    But I doubt such a paper exists in reality, because any attempt at mitigation depends on knowing the cause. For example, if anthropogenic CO2 had no impact at all and the warming was actually being caused by the sun, then it wouldn’t make sense to develop a mitigation strategy involving CO2.

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  13. JasonB Avatar
    JasonB

    So if not proven scientifically they operate under a “guise” then where do your scare quotes come from?

    You really seem to be obsessing over this. I use “skeptical” as a label (as opposed to a description) because they prefer to call themselves “skeptics”, but I can’t use it without the quotes because all scientists are supposed to be sceptical by their very nature (and, I would argue, the non-“skeptic” scientists have a much better track record of demonstrating it).

    Therefore to say “sceptical scientists” (without quotes) would be (a) redundant and (b) useless as a means of referring to the group who call themselves “skeptics”.

    Ironically, the point of choosing “skeptics” is to avoid being side-tracked by discussions about how they’re being labelled.

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  14. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    @JasonB

    Therefore to say “sceptical scientists” (without quotes) would be (a) redundant and (b) useless as a means of referring to the group who call themselves “skeptics”.

    Ironically, the point of choosing “skeptics” is to avoid being side-tracked by discussions about how they’re being labelled.

    Well I don’t see how scare quoting anybody is a sound way avoiding sidetracking. You either honestly, directly, describe their stance with your favorite unquoted adjectives or leave it basic. Both you and chris have scare quoted a certain cohort of the respondents and added no weight or explanation (chris tried a drive by mentioning AIDS and tobacco). Hence my rhetorical question asking who you guys are to do this? 😉

    Don’t worry I don’t want to know. 😉

    But I do think that precise meaning of words are important in some contexts, and the actual wording of the Cook et al papers questions are the most important context to look at in that paper before you limit analyse to a sub-groups after the fact. I maintain they are so imprecise as to undermine the papers worth.

    Given the phrase is basically saying “We propose that the global warming today caused by X and everything apart from X can be mitigated in the following way…” — i.e. it doesn’t address the issue of what is causing global warming because it simply lists all of them — I would classify it as a neutral. Unless, of course, you think there might be supernatural forces at work as well that it specifically is not addressing!

    OK so that is what you think of my hypothetical, and I did only ask what you think. But it isn’t what could be reasonable be expected when the questionnaire is out in the wild outside your control is it? Having a neutral position define as:

    4. Neutral:paper doesn’t address or mention issue of what’s causing global warming.

    means there is no guarantee this hypothetical scientist would select this level for his paper.
    BTW if you want me to flesh out this scientists work let’s say he is called Dr Evil and he is just going to put up a huge space shield to block light and the empirically frick around with its setting regardless of whats causing the warming below. He will cool earth! Are you saying that all treatments or mitigation actions can only be proposed only after 100% attribution of the cause of the symptoms are established and nailed down? It would be nice but I would say it doesn’t happen in the real world.

    At the risk of repeating myself: Are you serious? No, “the paper” can’t have been shown to the scientists before it came out, but “the paper” documents the questions that were shown to the scientists. I’m finding it difficult to believe that you actually think you’re making legitimate points.

    Well I was struck by your words here (my emphasis)

    Where quantification is present in the paper, “is causing” is spelt out to mean “more than half”.

    I admit to sarcasm when I mentioned time travel, but in your statement here you had my attention for a moment as it sure sounded like you were coming round to addressing the concern about whether “is causing” has any attachment to “more than half”. I.e. acknowledging that the wordings have some importance. It seemed that you were answering my concerns and implying that the actual wording had been better explained to the subjects taking the test. But then I realised however you only cite the final paper as doing this job! BTW I actually don’t even see it in the paper like this either 😉

    I don’t think you were attempting to be misleading, but I think you got mixed up between cause and effect. I think you thought that was the case; the wording had been explicitly explained. But it turns out it hadn’t.
    This should be a good moment to reflect upon the power of assumption against actuality.

    I mean, for a start, how could “skeptical” scientists know what the “consensus” looks like in order to correctly challenge it?

    Are you serious? They may have their own pet theories but they aren’t actually stupid.

    You seem to use a lot of argument from incredulity this seems to go hand in hand with many assumptions about what the subjects should know before filling out the replies.
    I.e That they should see the Level 1 and 7 half and half quantifying divide as somehow being guaranteed to be understood and applied to the intermediate levels. That the test subjects know its purpose of addressing a specific “consensus”. As I said above there is almost certainly clearly verious idea of consensus in various degrees in science but if one specific scientific consensus was being searched for then I say you must expect a better and more rigorously defined search for it.

    Only when considering that a definite clear latent political “consensus” is being searched for, and I say it this the one that Cook himself endorsed

    Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous. Read more:

    Then the prior assumptions become clear.

    The Cook paper is not a precise instrument that dispassionately says anything about scientists as an observation that is expected be handed to the public or policy makers to be used as they like.

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    1. Warren Pearce Avatar

      Re labels, generally problematic but hard to avoid. My favoured one’s fwiw are ‘convinced’ and ‘critical’, which carry the notion of argument and persuasion while steering away from words one side or other don’t like (hopefully!)

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      1. JasonB Avatar
        JasonB

        The problem with those labels is that often the ones I assume you are referring to as “critical” are often convinced that it’s Anything But Carbon and whenever one theory is proven wrong they effortlessly move on to the other, demonstrating no ability to be critical of their own theories at all. In other words, they suffer the same problems that the label “skeptical” does if taken to mean what it actually says.

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  15. JasonB Avatar
    JasonB

    tlitb1
    Well I don’t see how scare quoting anybody is a sound way avoiding sidetracking.

    Well, this is the first time it has ever done so.

    You either honestly, directly, describe their stance with your favorite unquoted adjectives or leave it basic.

    If I accurately describe the various subsets of the group I have labelled “skeptics”, it generally does lead to sidetracking. Likewise, I’m not sure what “leave it basic” is supposed to mean. I have explained who the label refers to and where it comes from, the quotation marks (who’s scared, exactly?) are merely used to signify that it is a label rather than a description, and the only thing you should read into that is that I do not accept that their preferred term is an accurate description and therefore in order to use it, it must be quoted.

    But I do think that precise meaning of words are important in some contexts, and the actual wording of the Cook et al papers questions are the most important context to look at in that paper before you limit analyse to a sub-groups after the fact. I maintain they are so imprecise as to undermine the papers worth.

    I agree that the precise meaning of words is important, which is why I keep correcting your misinterpretations of mine. I also maintain that the question in Cook et al is straightforward. It is not clear to me how a paper that asks people whether or not they agree with proposition X, and, if so, how that agreement is expressed, and then goes on to report the results in terms of the level of agreement with proposition X, can be considered “imprecise”.

    Likewise, I also maintain that if you disagree, you are free to ignore the categories that you don’t like, and I calculated the effects various permutations would have above. As I showed, the bottom line hardly changes. But if you think you have spotted some critical flaw (that you are yet to actually explain) then by all means, submit a comment to the journal and see if it passes peer review. Or write a new paper with what you consider the “correct” (quotes again!) methology.

    Given the phrase is basically saying “We propose that the global warming today caused by X and everything apart from X can be mitigated in the following way…” — i.e. it doesn’t address the issue of what is causing global warming because it simply lists all of them — I would classify it as a neutral. Unless, of course, you think there might be supernatural forces at work as well that it specifically is not addressing!

    OK so that is what you think of my hypothetical, and I did only ask what you think. But it isn’t what could be reasonable be expected when the questionnaire is out in the wild outside your control is it? Having a neutral position define as:

    4. Neutral:paper doesn’t address or mention issue of what’s causing global warming.

    means there is no guarantee this hypothetical scientist would select this level for his paper.

    There are very few guarantees in life. But if you think a significant percentage of scientists can’t figure out how to answer that question correctly with regards to their own paper — enough to make a meaningful difference to the outcome — then, by all means, conduct your own experiment. I suspect you’ll find out pretty quickly why nobody who wants to deny the existence of a consensus is actually going down that route.

    BTW if you want me to flesh out this scientists work let’s say he is called Dr Evil and he is just going to put up a huge space shield to block light and the empirically frick around with its setting regardless of whats causing the warming below. He will cool earth!

    Doesn’t change the fact that Dr Evil’s paper would be a Neutral, and I find it somewhat amusing that you respond to my comment “I doubt such a paper exists in reality” with a hypothetical paper written by a fictional character! Maybe in your “reality”. (Quotes again!)

    Are you saying that all treatments or mitigation actions can only be proposed only after 100% attribution of the cause of the symptoms are established and nailed down?

    No, that would be what we call “a strawman argument” — unless of course you can quote me saying “100% attribution of the cause of the symptoms are established and nailed down”.

    At the risk of repeating myself: Are you serious? No, “the paper” can’t have been shown to the scientists before it came out, but “the paper” documents the questions that were shown to the scientists. I’m finding it difficult to believe that you actually think you’re making legitimate points.

    Well I was struck by your words here (my emphasis)

    Where quantification is present in the paper, “is causing” is spelt out to mean “more than half”.

    I admit to sarcasm when I mentioned time travel, but in your statement here you had my attention for a moment as it sure sounded like you were coming round to addressing the concern about whether “is causing” has any attachment to “more than half”. I.e. acknowledging that the wordings have some importance. It seemed that you were answering my concerns and implying that the actual wording had been better explained to the subjects taking the test. But then I realised however you only cite the *final* paper as doing this job!

    I don’t “cite” the final paper, I explained the rating system described in the paper that seems to be causing you so much trouble:

    JasonB
    I repeat the point I made earlier: The results are advertised as endorsing of the proposition that “human activity is causing global warming”. Where quantification is present in the paper, “is causing” is spelt out to mean “more than half”. Where quantification is not present in the paper, “is causing” is contrasted with implications that humans have had a minimal impact e.g. by proposing something else “is causing” global warming, or explicit statements that humans are not causing global warming.

    Let’s take that sentence by sentence.

    “The results are advertised as endorsing of the proposition that “human activity is causing global warming”.” (Example)

    “Where quantification is present in the paper, “is causing” is spelt out to mean “more than half”.” Precisely two ratings feature Quantification: 1 – Explicit Endorsement with Quantification and 7 – Explicit Rejection with Quantification. The former says “paper explicitly states that humans are causing most of global warming”; the latter, “paper explicitly states that humans are causing less than half of global warming”. Ergo, “is causing” (the phrase in the actual question that level 1 is endorsing) means “more than half”.

    “Where quantification is not present in the paper, “is causing” is contrasted with implications that humans have had a minimal impact e.g. by proposing something else “is causing” global warming, or explicit statements that humans are not causing global warming.” This follows directly from the descriptions and examples given for the Rejection levels 5 and 6. If a paper implies humans have had a minimal impact e.g. by proposing that something else is causing global warming, or explicitly minimises or rejects that humans are causing global warming, then it’s a Rejection. The “Endorsement” ratings must be read in conjunction with the “Rejection” ratings. So if the author of a paper claiming that the sun was the primary driver of the warming in question, he would see that level 5 must apply even if he thinks humans are the second-largest effect, say.

    BTW I actually don’t even see it in the paper like this either

    Not sure what you’re trying to say here, nor why it deserves a wink. Is it because you know what you’re saying is not true?

    I don’t think you were attempting to be misleading, but I think you got mixed up between cause and effect.

    I wasn’t being misleading and if you think I’m the one who’s mixed up then you’re going to have to do a lot better at explaining yourself.

    I think you thought that was the case; the wording had been explicitly explained. But it turns out it hadn’t.

    I’m not sure how much more explicit they could make it.

    I mean, for a start, how could “skeptical” scientists know what the “consensus” looks like in order to correctly challenge it?

    Are you serious? They may have their own pet theories but they aren’t actually stupid.

    You seem to use a lot of argument from incredulity this seems to go hand in hand with many assumptions about what the subjects should know before filling out the replies.

    Although I find it incredulous that you would think practicing scientists in the field would be ignorant of what’s going on in their own field, I would like to point out that the word “consensus” appears nowhere in the question. They’re not being asked whether they agree with some ill-defined “consensus”, they’re being asked whether their paper endorses, rejects, or is neutral on a particular proposition that is spelled out to them.

    I.e That they should see the Level 1 and 7 half and half quantifying divide as somehow being guaranteed to be understood and applied to the intermediate levels.

    It seems that you still don’t get it. The “half and half” quantifying divide doesn’t apply to the intermediate levels because the intermediate levels don’t quantify. You might have a point if the results were advertised as “97% of scientists agree that humans are causing more than half of global warming” but that’s not how it’s advertised. (Somewhat ironically, if we do restrict ourselves to papers that quantify the amount, we not only end up with the same percentage, we can also lift the bar even higher! But that’s besides the point.)

    Let’s forget any paper that quantifies the amount of human causation (typically these are going to be specialised “attribution” studies) together with ratings 1 and 7. Pretend they don’t exist.

    Now the question is:

    Cook et al (modified)

    Endorsement: The second drop down indicates the level of endorsement for the proposition that human activity (i.e., anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is causing global warming (e.g., the increase in temperature). Note: we are not asking about your personal opinion but whether each specific paper endorses or rejects (whether explicitly or implicitly) that humans cause global warming:

    Explicit Endorsement: paper explicitly states humans are causing global warming or refers to anthropogenic global warming/climate change as a given fact.
    Implicit Endorsement: paper implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research
    assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.
    Neutral: paper doesn’t address or mention issue of what’s causing global warming.
    Implicit Rejection: paper implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming
    without saying so explicitly. E.g., proposing a natural mechanism is the main cause of global
    warming.
    Explicit Rejection: paper explicitly minimizes or rejects that humans
    are causing global warming.

    They do the study and find that 549 papers are categorised by their authors as “Explicit Endorsement”, 545 are categorised as “Implicit Endorsement”, 5 are categorised as “Explicit Rejection”, and 24 as “Implicit Rejection”. (These are the actual numbers, BTW.)

    They then advertise these results as saying that “97% of climate papers whose authors state they take a position on human-caused global warming rate their papers as agreeing that human greenhouse gas emission is causing global warming”. (There’s that 97% figure again! It’s actually 97.4% in this case.)

    What is there to object to? They’re reporting exactly the question that was put to the authors, and how the authors responded.

    If you accept that the above is reasonable, then how can adding two new categories to cater for those papers that do report quantitatively the amount of human causation, and deciding to map “is causing” from the above case to “more than half”, be a problem?

    That the test subjects know its purpose of addressing a specific “consensus”. As I said above there is almost certainly clearly verious idea of consensus in various degrees in science but if one specific scientific consensus was being searched for then I say you must expect a better and more rigorously defined search for it.

    So now you’re saying that the authors knew what the consensus was beforehand? Make up your mind. But it’s irrelevant, because the test subjects were asked to address a specific proposition, and it is that proposition that is reported on.

    Only when considering that a definite clear latent political “consensus” is being searched for, and I say it this the one that Cook himself endorsed

    Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous. Read more:

    Then the prior assumptions become clear.

    What are you objecting to, the “and dangerous” on the end? Although Cook et al didn’t address the consequences, if the scientists agree that climate change is real and man-made then the peer-reviewed scientific literature does support the conclusion. Besides, there are other papers that support that statement directly — e.g. Bray and von Storch showed that 80% of scientists are significantly convinced that “climate change poses a very serious and dangerous threat to humanity”. A very serious and dangerous threat to humanity! Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. Can you imagine the outcry if we were talking about a virus or something and we were wasting our time with ridiculous arguments like this instead of heeding expert advise?

    The Cook paper is not a precise instrument that dispassionately says anything about scientists as an observation that is expected be handed to the public or policy makers to be used as they like.

    The Cook paper is by far the largest attempt to quantify the level of support in the scientific literature for a very specific and very important question. Importantly, they didn’t water down the proposition (e.g. to something like “human activity contributes to global warming”) specifically to ensure that people couldn’t say “I thought the 97% figure simply applied to scientists who thought human activity CONTRIBUTED in some form, perhaps only down at the 1/10th of 1% level, to climate change.” Papers like that would be counted as Rejecting the proposition.

    One of the most amusing aspects of this is that, of course, all of this has been well known for a long time now. Cook et al merely reaffirmed many previous studies — replicating prior results was actually one of the things they verified. These attempts to deny the results — not by actually checking if the paper’s correct, mind you, but making wishy-washy arguments about the question itself — just go to show how large the gap is between public perception and reality. The efforts of those who have found themselves “outed” as minority views to somehow pretend that the definition is so broad that they are actually included in this “consensus” (and a quick check shows they were not) also shows how important it is for some to have people continue to think that they’re an authority worth listening to.

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  16. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    There are very few guarantees in life. But if you think a significant percentage of scientists can’t figure out how to answer that question correctly with regards to their own paper — enough to make a meaningful difference to the outcome — then, by all means, conduct your own experiment. I suspect you’ll find out pretty quickly why nobody who wants to deny the existence of a consensus is actually going down that route.

    Mmm, there’s that argument from incredulity again. 😉 I am simply saying that there is no reason to accept your interpretation of what scientist have successfully “figured out” when answering the paper. They have a short time to answer and theoretically no real concern or devotion to the purpose of the survey other than to find a level description that best suits their understanding of their own paper.

    Are you saying that all treatments or mitigation actions can only be proposed only after 100% attribution of the cause of the symptoms are established and nailed down?

    No, that would be what we call “a strawman argument” — unless of course you can quote me saying “100% attribution of the cause of the symptoms are established and nailed down”.

    That was in response to you saying:

    Given the phrase is basically saying “We propose that the global warming today caused by X and everything apart from X can be mitigated in the following way…” — i.e. it doesn’t address the issue of what is causing global warming because it simply lists all of them — I would classify it as a neutral. Unless, of course, you think there might be supernatural forces at work as well that it specifically is not addressing!

    I got the strong impression from this that you think that if any paper acknowledges partial human cause on global warming (as in my hypothetical mitigation example) but does not state what ratio it is in, and does not define what is causing the rest, then you think that I am resorting to supernatural belief. Maybe my impression was wrong and you were just making a strawman argument about my hypothetical example? 😉

    BTW I actually don’t even see it in the paper like this either

    Not sure what you’re trying to say here, nor why it deserves a wink. Is it because you know what you’re saying is not true?

    My main primary point about what the scientist have to do to create the Cook et al source data, and it has no bearing on what the final paper says or claims. The whole subject of what the scientist have to do to create the data can only involve discussion of the source material they were provided to go on. Questions, examples, whatever. No regard to what the paper later explained or “advertised” is needed.
    For example in your discussion of what authors are doing:

    This follows directly from the descriptions and examples given for the Rejection levels 5 and 6. If a paper implies humans have had a minimal impact e.g. by proposing that something else is causing global warming, or explicitly minimises or rejects that humans are causing global warming, then it’s a Rejection. The “Endorsement” ratings must be read in conjunction with the “Rejection” ratings. So if the author of a paper claiming that the sun was the primary driver of the warming in question, he would see that level 5 must apply even if he thinks humans are the second-largest effect, say.

    You have made an error here by implying the surveyed author had examples to go on to help his inferences. This error can only be explained by you mistaking the contents of the final paper for anything the original data providers saw. Examples appear in the final paper but are not part of the questionnaire to scientists.

    The Cook paper is by far the largest attempt to quantify the level of support in the scientific literature for a very specific and very important question.

    As to your Cook et al (modified) example, no offence, and I appreciate you have put some thought into that and all your other studies of sub-groups, but I am not interested in hypothetically changing the rules for the paper and then picking through the data that qualifies and saying Ta, Da! Look it still gives similar percentage figures! Especially when you youself make the point of its alleged scale being a key advertised feature.

    You might have a point if the results were advertised as “97% of scientists agree that humans are causing more than half of global warming” but that’s not how it’s advertised.

    I do have a point because it is being advertised as:

    Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous. Read more: [Link to article on Cooks paper]

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  17. JasonB Avatar
    JasonB

    tlitb1
    I am simply saying that there is no reason to accept your interpretation of what scientist have successfully “figured out” when answering the paper.

    All I said is that the scientists will follow the instructions provided to them. I haven’t seen anyone put up any evidence to suggest that they failed to do so. Given the difficulty you’ve had understanding my comments, I think you should consider the possibility that any personal difficulty you’ve had following those instructions may not apply to other people. If you think others have had the same difficulty, you need to provide evidence.

    They have a short time to answer

    Says who? So far your entire argument seems to be “I find the instructions confusing, I’m sure scientists would too, plus they’re busy people who don’t really care about the outcome. QED.” Sorry if I’m not convinced.

    That was in response to you saying:

    Given the phrase is basically saying “We propose that the global warming today caused by X and everything apart from X can be mitigated in the following way…” – i.e. it doesn’t address the issue of what is causing global warming because it simply lists all of them – I would classify it as a neutral. Unless, of course, you think there might be supernatural forces at work as well that it specifically is not addressing!

    I got the strong impression from this that you think that if any paper acknowledges partial human cause on global warming (as in my hypothetical mitigation example) but does not state what ratio it is in, and does not define what is causing the rest, then you think that I am resorting to supernatural belief. Maybe my impression was wrong and you were just making a strawman argument about my hypothetical example?

    I think at this point you can just assume “your impression was wrong”. “it”, in the last sentence you quoted, is clearly referring to the specific example that you gave.

    In your example, you said “the global warming today caused by human and natural effects”. I made the point that it is basically saying “the global warming today caused by everything that causes global warming” (which means it isn’t saying anything about what causes global warming, and is therefore neutral) unless you think there are supernatural forces at work that fall outside the definition “human and natural effects”.

    Your rewording of it above is yet another strawman because it doesn’t match your example.

    BTW I actually don’t even see it in the paper like this either

    Not sure what you’re trying to say here, nor why it deserves a wink. Is it because you know what you’re saying is not true?

    My main primary point about what the scientist have to do to create the Cook et al source data, and it has no bearing on what the final paper says or claims. The whole subject of what the scientist have to do to create the data can only involve discussion of the source material they were provided to go on. Questions, examples, whatever. No regard to what the paper later explained or “advertised” is needed.
    For example in your discussion of what authors are doing:

    This follows directly from the descriptions and examples given for the Rejection levels 5 and 6. If a paper implies humans have had a minimal impact e.g. by proposing that something else is causing global warming, or explicitly minimises or rejects that humans are causing global warming, then it’s a Rejection. The “Endorsement” ratings must be read in conjunction with the “Rejection” ratings. So if the author of a paper claiming that the sun was the primary driver of the warming in question, he would see that level 5 must apply even if he thinks humans are the second-largest effect, say.

    You have made an error here by implying the surveyed author had examples to go on to help his inferences. This error can only be explained by you mistaking the contents of the final paper for anything the original data providers saw. Examples appear in the final paper but are *not* part of the questionnaire to scientists.

    So your entire argument rests on the proposition that what I’ve been quoting from comes from the final paper, but that is somehow different to what was seen by the scientists?

    You might want to ask yourself how you know what the scientists saw and why you are confident in claiming that I’m the one in error.

    The reason I say that is because what I’ve been referring to is “The text of the self-rating survey form provided to authors” that is given in the supplementary material, and which, in turn, matches the descriptions given in the paper itself. The examples I gave in that paragraph are basically taken word-for-word from the examples given to the authors.

    The Cook paper is by far the largest attempt to quantify the level of support in the scientific literature for a very specific and very important question.

    As to your Cook et al (modified) example, no offence, and I appreciate you have put some thought into that and all your other studies of sub-groups, but I am not interested in hypothetically changing the rules for the paper and then picking through the data that qualifies and saying Ta, Da! Look it still gives similar percentage figures! Especially when you youself make the point of its alleged scale being a key advertised feature.

    Of course you wouldn’t, because if you did you would quickly demolish your own argument. And even with those unequivocal subsets it’s still the largest survey so attempting to avoid doing so on that basis is pretty contrived.

    You might have a point if the results were advertised as “97% of scientists agree that humans are causing more than half of global warming” but that’s not how it’s advertised.

    I do have a point because it is being advertised as:

    Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous. Read more: [Link to article on Cooks paper]

    No, it’s not. I’ve already shown you how it’s being advertised. You’re really stretching if your entire objection is how an article on Cook’s paper was reported in 140 characters on the President’s Twitter account, especially when said Tweet doesn’t say “more than half of global warming”, which, if I might drag you back to the point, is what we were actually talking about.

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  18. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    @JasonB

    All I said is that the scientists will follow the instructions provided to them. I haven’t seen anyone put up any evidence to suggest that they failed to do so.

    When you said this I thought I may have missed that that the author responses had been de-anonymised and that comparing author ratings against their papers was now possible. But on checking further it seems not. So it seems you are just offering an empty challenge here.

    I started by objecting to the claims of a “high bar” and I don’t seem to have succeeded in making my position further clearer to you. So I think it might be a good idea if I sum it up in a simple way:

    The Cook et al paper’s conclusion about what it said it had shown regarding scientific consensus:

    …an overwhelming percentage (97.2% based on self-ratings, 97.1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.

    The Cook et al paper’s definition of scientific consensus:*

    … that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW).

    The way that that the Cook et al paper’s established this 97% level of scientific consensus was by accepting the largest proportion, in both abstract and self rating, matched this definition:

    Implicit Endorsement: paper implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.

    The stated purpose of Cook et el paper:

    An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public support for climate policy (Ding et al 2011).

    The way the lead author advertised, and uncritically accepted, the most powerful politician on Earth reporting his paper:

    Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous. Read more: [Link to article on Cooks paper]

    I take it you are fine with this example of scientific inquiry and promotion? I am not a scientist so maybe that is why I find it very poor?

    *BTW To pre-empt any objection that the paper had a definition of scientifc consensus 😉 Cook defines it:

    We examined a large sample of the scientific literature on global CC, published over a 21 year period, in order to determine the level of scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW).

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  19. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    @JasonB

    So your entire argument rests on the proposition that what I’ve been quoting from comes from the final paper, but that is somehow different to what was seen by the scientists?

    You might want to ask yourself how you know what the scientists saw and why you are confident in claiming that I’m the one in error.

    The reason I say that is because what I’ve been referring to is “The text of the self-rating survey form provided to authors” that is given in the supplementary material, and which, in turn, matches the descriptions given in the paper itself. The examples I gave in that paragraph are basically taken word-for-word from the examples given to the authors.

    I admit this puzzled me – and not just because of the all singing and dancing stawman! 😉 I couldn’t put my finger on it and then realised it was the phrase “The examples I gave in that paragraph are basically taken word-for-word from the examples given to the authors.”. Didn’t seem to make any sense in the context of author instructions.

    You had said earlier:

    This follows directly from the descriptions and examples given for the Rejection levels [note plural] …

    You see, I had thought nothing follows from the examples given in the final paper, since they were not offered to the surveyed scientists to ponder on.

    I was convinced your phrase “from the descriptions and examples” must have been referring to the final paper because that has a Table 1 listing the same words offered to the scientists under the column “Description” but also with the addition of a column labelled “Example” which they didn’t see. Below the “Example” column is a list of corresponding examples beside each of the levels’ description .

    I thought this must be what you meant by “descriptions and examples“.

    But now you say:

    The examples I gave in that paragraph are basically taken word-for-word from the examples given to the authors.

    I am not sure why you say it like this when you also say:

    All I said is that the scientists will follow the instructions provided to them.

    I am not too sure if you mean “examples” in the same way as “instructions” now. If you are being literal when you say “the examples given to the authors”, then I take it you may mean the nearest thing to examples the authors would have seen. I.e. the two e.g.s in the instructions for selecting Level 3 and 5:

    Bolded below:

    3 Implicit Endorsement: paper implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.
    5 Implicit Rejection: paper implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly. E.g., proposing a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming.

    Now you have drawn my attention to it, this is the curious thing. Do you see the lack of symmetry? Why is it OK to give an example saying “a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming” for the non-quantifying reject category here?

    It is in no way equivalent to the milder opposite example “research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.”

    Isn’t “the main cause” identical to “most” here?

    If you agree then how do you feel this squares with your declaration that using “most” in level 2 and 3 is wrong because:

    The word “most” only comes up when trying to map “is causing” onto a quantified amount. “Is causing” is the actual proposition, “most” is merely what “is causing” should be interpreted to mean when amounts are involved.

    Even if you don’t agree with the lack of symmetry, surely you must see that by your interpretation the “example” offered for 5 pushes its meaning to Level 6?

    6 Explicit Rejection without Quantification: paper explicitly minimizes or rejects that humans are causing global warming

    Or do you think the authors should have figured out to ignore any ambiguity there?

    Do you not have a smidgen of concern about presentation bias in this paper? 😉

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  20. JasonB Avatar
    JasonB

    tlitb1
    @JasonB

    All I said is that the scientists will follow the instructions provided to them. I haven’t seen anyone put up any evidence to suggest that they failed to do so.

    When you said this I thought I may have missed that that the author responses had been de-anonymised and that comparing author ratings against their papers was now possible. But on checking further it seems not. So it seems you are just offering an empty challenge here.

    Not at all. Firstly, have any authors reported that they misunderstood the instructions based on how the results are being promoted? The media coverage has been extensive and if I was an author I’d be curious to see how Cook et al rated my papers and how what I submitted is being reported; if I saw a discrepancy, I’d comment on it. Have you seen any? Have you seen anyone ask any? If you want to make statements about whether scientists had any trouble interpreting the question, I’m afraid there’s no substitute for actually finding out.

    Secondly, the “skeptical” papers are so few, it’s actually not hard to “de-anonymise” them, at least. But even without that, you could also go the other way, selecting papers that you know are “skeptical” to see if (a) Cook et al rated them as such and (b) whether you can identify them in the author responses. Or you could try emailing the author and asking them.

    The way that that the Cook et al paper’s established this 97% level of scientific consensus was by accepting the largest proportion, in both abstract and self rating, matched this definition:

    That’s not true, the largest proportion in self ratings was level 2 — explicit endorsement without quantification. And if you’re going to try to dismiss the results on the basis that you don’t like one of the categories, you can’t do so without assessing the impact of removing that category from said results — you know, a sensitivity analysis. If you do so, you quickly find that it makes no real difference.

    The way the lead author advertised, and uncritically accepted, the most powerful politician on Earth reporting his paper:

    Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous. Read more: [Link to article on Cooks paper]

    What would make you happy? Instead of saying “Look, the President knows about our paper!” he said “Look, the President knows about our paper! But note that the “and dangerous” part is not directly shown by our paper, it’s implied by the science that our paper says has overwhelming acceptance.” Is that what concerns you?

    I take it you are fine with this example of scientific inquiry and promotion? I am not a scientist so maybe that is why I find it very poor?

    I don’t see anything wrong with the paper, and I’m willing to forgive a reluctance to point out any errors in a Presidential tweet about the work. (Note that the tweet also says “scientists” and not “scientific papers in the literature that matched the terms “Global Warming” and “Global Climate Change” between 1990 and 2011 that expressed a view on the cause of global warming”. I suppose we can forgive that one due to character constraints.)

    BTW, the actual article that the tweet linked to was fine.

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  21. JasonB Avatar
    JasonB

    tlitb1
    [Lots of confused statements that seem to boil down to “I didn’t bother reading the supplementary material to find out what the actual instructions were”]
    I am not too sure if you mean “examples” in the same way as “instructions” now. If you are being literal when you say “the examples given to the authors”, then I take it you may mean the nearest thing to examples the authors would have seen. I.e. the two e.g.s in the instructions for selecting Level 3 and 5:

    Yes, of course that’s what I mean, made more obvious by the fact I quoted them. Seriously, if you had actually bothered reading the paper and supplementary material before commenting it would have saved us both a lot of time.

    Bolded below:

    3 Implicit Endorsement: paper implies humans are causing global warming. E.g., research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.
    5 Implicit Rejection: paper implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly. E.g., proposing a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming.

    Now you have drawn my attention to it, this is the curious thing. Do you see the lack of symmetry? Why is it OK to give an example saying “a natural mechanism is the main cause of global warming” for the non-quantifying reject category here?

    It is in no way equivalent to the milder opposite example “research assumes greenhouse gases cause warming without explicitly stating humans are the cause.”

    Isn’t “the main cause” identical to “most” here?

    Note that an example is precisely that — an example. It’s a case that would fit, but it’s not the only case. The description says “Implies humans have had a minimal impact on global warming without saying so explicitly”. Any scientist who produced a paper that claimed global warming is caused by a natural mechanism without reference to GHGs and without claiming it’s “the main cause” would have no problem putting his paper in that category. After all, it has to fit somewhere, and it can’t be neutral (because it’s taking a position), it certainly can’t be an endorsement (because the only cause it’s mentioning is natural), and if it doesn’t mention human GHG emissions then the only option left is level 5, where the description fits perfectly even if the exact word used in the example does not appear.

    Of course, as I’ve already mentioned, if you’re unhappy about level 3 on this basis you can simply reclassify them all as “neutral” and you’ll quickly discover that it doesn’t make much difference to the results.

    Even if you don’t agree with the lack of symmetry, surely you must see that by your interpretation the “example” offered for 5 pushes its meaning to Level 6?

    No, the key difference between them is that 5 relies on implication to support its rejection, whereas 6 explicitly rejects human causation, just as 3 relies on implication while 2 is explicit.

    Or do you think the authors should have figured out to ignore any ambiguity there?

    I think so, but strictly speaking, it doesn’t matter — if an author got it “wrong” and put a 5 as a 6 or a 6 as a 5, it doesn’t affect the final results because they’re all aggregated into “endorsement” and “rejection” anyway. All that really matters to the final result is whether the author might have incorrectly reported a rejection paper as an endorsement or an endorsement paper as a rejection. Given the differences between those two, that seems highly unlikely.

    As always, actual examples of where this might have occurred and the impact it would have on the results are welcome.

    Do you not have a smidgen of concern about presentation bias in this paper?

    I don’t know what you mean by “presentation bias”. I don’t have any concerns about the paper itself; it’s simply reporting a fairly obvious and well-known fact that anyone can double-check by surveying the literature themselves (as others have done before). If there really was a discrepancy between what the literature actually said and what all these surveys have shown, I’m sure Heartland or someone else would have produced their own survey to show that. I actually had a go at rating abstracts myself to see if their results were reasonable; I’d suggest you do the same.

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  22. tlitb1 Avatar
    tlitb1

    Firstly, have any authors reported that they misunderstood the instructions based on how the results are being promoted? The media coverage has been extensive and if I was an author I’d be curious to see how Cook et al rated my papers and how what I submitted is being reported; if I saw a discrepancy, I’d comment on it.

    This is quite strange. How can a subject author possibly know how his responses positioned or aggregated in with the rest!?

    Have you seen any? Have you seen anyone ask any?

    What’s this got to do with anything I have said? To make it even clearer: I have always accepted that an author can read Level 2 or 3 and agree to their wordings and puts his paper in those levels. I don’t however agree he becomes part of the 97% since the Cook et al papers conclusion says the 97% is made up of people who agree to this:

    …that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW)

    You seem to be saying a subject author must agree to this because he will have somehow made his selection based on inferences from the explicit quantifying levels shown at 1 and 7. But later you minimise the observation that a rejection level that has an explicit quantifying example that contradicts its implicit definition. As if the same scientist would ignore this and not infer anything from it that could be detrimental to the “correct” interpretation .

    If you want to make statements about whether scientists had any trouble interpreting the question, I’m afraid there’s no substitute for actually finding out.

    I see your often implying the argument boils down to the authors having had “trouble” or “failed” to follow the instructions is clearly loaded, and seems an attempt to move the emphasis away from my clear criticism of the paper: that it only needs the simple observation that the questions are not well written enough, or properly balanced, to lead to its claimed strength of its outcome.

    Lots of confused statements that seem to boil down to “I didn’t bother reading the supplementary material to find out what the actual instructions were”

    Well since I was the first person on this page to have quoted the specific author instructions (outside of the Categories), and then commented on their wording early on above, this seems to indicate you have a short memory or your scroll wheel is broken? 😉 . I do remember that when you started talking about author instructions, and introduced their wordings, you said “Table 2 describes…”. Therefore pointing your then interlocutor Michael J. McFadden toward the Table in the paper which included “examples”, but which the subject authors would never have seen.

    You may notice that your comment occurs just before I butted in on this subject? 😉

    What would make you happy? Instead of saying “Look, the President knows about our paper!” he said “Look, the President knows about our paper! But note that the “and dangerous” part is not directly shown by our paper, it’s implied by the science that our paper says has overwhelming acceptance.” Is that what concerns you?

    Er, yes. It would make me happy if Cook corrected a misstatement about his paper.

    Do you think Cook will ever do this? Correct this overstatement? There is still time you know. 😉

    I don’t see anything wrong with the paper, and I’m willing to forgive a reluctance to point out any errors in a Presidential tweet about the work.

    That’s nice. The fact your liking the paper reduces your desire to criticise the author for not correcting errors of representation of it in the largest political forum imaginable. A paper whose self declared goal is to help provide policy makers and the public “An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus…”

    I suppose we can forgive that one due to character constraints.

    I don’t know who is the we there but it certainly doesn’t include me. You may excuse political distortion via “science” but I don’t, and I think a good many others would be similarly disturbed if they knew the extent of its casual acceptance if they had the time to explore.

    However I think I am seeing the light regarding your tolerance of the flaws in this paper now. 😉

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  23. chris Avatar
    chris

    Some of this thread has been illustrative of the way that efforts to undermine inconvenient science tend to involve attempts at subversion of straightforward meaning. Considerable effort is made to downplay or reassign quite innocuous words/concepts like “consensus” and “sceptic”.

    This came to mind while re-reading Frank Close’s near 25-year-old account of the Fleishman and Pons “cold fusion” episode (“Too hot to handle” Penguin paperbacks, 1990) where those words (“consensus” and “sceptic”) kept rather jumping of the page at me!

    So for example Close describes the rush to raise (and ultimately waste) money in pursuit of the claims of cold fusion from the Pons/Fleishman Utah lab:

    p. 329: ”The funding of the National Cold Fusion Institute and the reactions in Washington were much stimulated by them. However in general it is wiser to wait until it is clear whether or not a consensus is emerging; a few early confirmations prove nothing.”

    That’s pretty straightforward. In making policy decisions on science-related matters it’s appropriate to establish that there is a scientific consensus with respect to the evidence. There is nothing new about the straightforward idea of a scientific consensus, and efforts like those on this thread to disparage the clear scientific consensus on the dominant anthropogenic origin of global warming of especially the last 50 years suggests how dangerous a scientific consensus can be if you happen not to like the science or its implications.

    Rather in tune with the subject of this thread Close also describes how Pons’ lawyer (employed by the University of Utah) tried to bully a group of scientists who published rather damning evidence against the Fleishman/Pons claims, into retracting their Nature paper. The Wall Street Journal headline was ”Cold Fusion Scientists’ Lawyer tells Skeptic to Retract of Face Suit”!

    Notice that “skeptic” (or “sceptic”) is used properly in Close’s book and in the Wall Street Journal headline. A sceptic in the scientific sense is someone who makes an informed and honest critique based on scientific evidence. A sceptic is not someone who chooses not to agree with some science because it’s not to his/her taste, and raises dubious arguments or false “evidence” in support of their position.

    These usages are pretty obvious, but in my mind it’s important to re-establish what we mean with the words we use, and to be wary of attempts to subvert common meaning! 🙂

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  24. Making Science Public » Making science public blog posts in 2013 – an overview Avatar

    […] of real science, and most of all a comment piece on a controversial article entitled the ‘subterranean war on science’. Warren also critically assessed a famous metaphor used to communicate the rise of greenhouse […]

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