Chanting to the choir: The dialogical failure of antithetical climate change blogs

This is a guest post by Jennifer Metcalfe on a paper she just published. The article explored the potential for people commenting underneath two very different, even antithetical, blogs dealing with climate science, to chat about and engage with climate science.

***

My paper, Chanting to the choir: the dialogical failure of antithetical climate change blogs, was recently published in the Journal of Science Communication. This paper emerged from one of the chapters in my PhD thesis, Rethinking science communication models in practice, which was accepted at the Australian National University last year.

My motivation for studying two antithetical blogs on climate change science was to look at whether laypeople—those without a scientific background—were engaging in deliberative discussions about the science on blogs. I chose antithetical blogs because I was interested to see if the quality of dialogue was different between those who engaged with the consensus science of climate change (https://www.skepticalscience.com/) versus those who engaged with a blog that denied such science (http://joannenova.com.au/).

I was particularly interested in the dialogue between commenters on such blogsites as this had rarely been studied compared to science blog posts or bloggers. I was interested in dialogue on a publicly controversial issue like climate change because deliberative dialogue is thought to have the potential to bring about democratic change and action, compared to the mere dissemination of information.

Since the publication of my article on 14 April, there’s been some interesting twitter discussions about it. Concern has been expressed in several tweets that I did not comment on the scientific credibility of each of the sites. Related to this, other tweets were concerned that by looking at antithetical climate change blogs, I have been giving false balance or equivalence to the issue in a similar way to how some journalists will give climate scientists and deniers equal space. Other tweets are concerned that I call both John Cook (Skeptical Science blogger) and Joanna Nova ‘science communicators’.

To be frank, I did not expect such reactions to this paper but it’s great that it’s stimulated such discussions and I want to explore each of these concerns.

Firstly, I did not assess the scientific credibility of each of the blog posts nor of the comments made on each post because this was not the purpose of my research. I am not a climate scientist, which means I could not rigorously assess the scientific credibility of the blogposts or comments, even if I wanted to.

However, commenting as a science communication practitioner of more than 30 years, I am very aware that Skeptical Science goes to great lengths to ensure the peer-review credibility of their posts. The site won a prestigious Eureka prize for its excellence in science communication in 2011. The opposite is true for Joanna Nova’s blog site.

I deliberately focussed on the comments rather than the posts. I looked at the comments as contained on each blog site and was not specifically looking to see if Skeptical Science engaged with deniers or if Jo Nova’s site was engaging with those supporting scientific consensus.

And what I found interesting when exploring the dialogue between commenters on both sites, regardless of their scientific credibility, is that they consolidated “their own polarised publics rather than deliberately engaging them in climate change science”. The problem with this, even for a highly credible blog like Skeptical Science, is that the blogsites are not engaging laypeople deliberately in their science. Instead, I found that the dialogue for both sites were dominated by a few vocal commenters, and for Skeptical Science most of these commenters made very technical comments that an average layperson would not understand. I was actually surprised that only rarely did commenters on each site try to influence other commenters to their point of view. I concluded that this was largely because they were already talking with like-minded people.

With regard to the false balance argument: this is a research paper written for a scholarly audience, not a journalistic piece. As a science communicator who also writes popular science articles, I would never give credence or equal weight to anti-science commentary regardless of the topic.

This brings me to the last point about calling someone who denies consensus climate science a ‘science communicator’. Jo Nova is a pseudonym for Joanne Codling who is a graduate from and was a lecturer in the Australian National University’s (ANU) science communication program. Her blog’s About page says: “Before blogging she hosted a children’s TV series on Channel Nine, was a regular keynote speaker, and managed the Shell Questacon Science Circus. She was an associate lecturer in Science Communication at ANU. At one time she helped fundraise for The Australian Greens. Then she grew up.” I certainly don’t regard Jo Nova as a ‘science communicator’, and perhaps I should have made it clearer in my paper that this was her claim rather than mine. However, it’s an interesting point to consider: what do we call lawyers, teachers or doctors who’ve gone bad?

My research for this paper does not claim to speak for all climate science blogs, credible or not. It provides an in-depth exploration of the comments and dialogue on two among many. My research did not aim to promote either of the blogsites examined. But I hope my research adds to our understanding about online dialogue about climate science. From my perspective, we clearly need to find ways other than blogs to engage laypeople in credible climate science which leads to political and individual action.

Image: Thomas Webster: The village choir, Wikimedia Commons

 

 


Discover more from Making Science Public

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.


Posted

in

,

by

Comments

128 responses to “Chanting to the choir: The dialogical failure of antithetical climate change blogs”

  1. ...and Then There's Physics Avatar

    I was one of those who commented on the lack of an attempt to assess the relative credibility of the sites. As you say in this, there are strong indicators that Skeptical Science presents credible scientific information and Jo Nova (by and large) does not.

    However, since you are mostly interested in the comment threads, I thought I would comment on my own experience. My blog is still reasonably active, but was much more so in the past. I had a number of threads with ~1000 comments. My tagline for a while was “Trying to keep the discussion civil”. I failed, though. Without strong moderation, the comment threads just degenerated. You also start to notice patterns, so you start to moderate some commenters more quickly than others (i.e., you get a sense if a comment is made in good faith, or not).

    So, in some sense the comment threads get sculpted by the nature of the contentious discourse. If you don’t moderate strongly, it degenerates, and just ends up with people fighting with each other. If you do moderate strongly, you will then end up with comments that tend to be amongst people who can at least satisfy the moderation policy and, probably, have similar views. It certainly wasn’t my intent to end up with the latter, but it became that because of a desire to not have comment threads that were wildly unpleasant.

    This doesn’t mean that people always agree with each other in the comments, and I do think I had some comment threads there were quite interesting from this perspective. However, the strong moderation did preferentially tend to encourage those who strongly questioned the anthropogenic nature of climate change to stay away (not all, but this was probably a consequence).

    I could also comment on my experiences posting comments on “skeptical” blogs, but I’ll leave that for the moment.

    Like

  2. Barry Woods Avatar
    Barry Woods

    Sure.. then there are those (Dr Roger Pielke junior, for one) that think Skeptical Science is not a highly credible blog.. ‘who decides?’

    Skeptical Science has pages dedicated to criticizing Prof Ian Plimer… who coincidentally is a twice Euereka prize winner… (is he not ‘doubly’ credible.) and having pages of ‘climate misinformers’ which comes across as political activist rhetoric, and a reason some scientists will not cite Skeptical Science.

    If we were to use ‘credibility’ as by how many academic citations someone has. Roger Pielke jnr. is well ahead of John Cook (SkS) . so what are we to make of Roger’s harsh words about Skeptical Science?
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2020/02/09/a-climate-blacklist-that-works-it-should-make-her-unhirable-in-academia/#782082ef6368

    but many SkS opponent think SKS is a highly partisan one, stuffed full of political activists (and are you aware of Dr Jose Duarte blog, highly, highly critical of Cook.) SkS has some very odd behavior (their leaked self photoshopped Nazi photos, as but one example as Roger Pielke refer to in the article above)) and basically perceived by many as disingenuous (like their ‘claimed’ moderation policy.-as shown when their leaked hacked private moderators forum, gave a large window, into their activist behavior )

    and in part, ironically, with their attitude and behavior they are one of the bigger creators of climate skeptics (similar to the reaction Realclimate recieved, back in the day.. in fact there is a paper about the Realclimate effect) and SkS has similarly driven sceptic reactions and responses.(not least my own and the resulting blog battles)

    Of course when it comes to Skeptical Science I would/should be considered a highly partisan opponent, having written for Watts Up With That, and a friend of Jo Nova (and ATTP above, on their ‘side’) An example of their ‘moderation’ policy below. when i was banned for life, for questioning one of Cook’s papers.

    https://skepticalscience.com/how-deniers-accept-so-many-impossible-things-at-once.html#118728

    Looking back at the history of SKS and Jo Nova. they in part could be argues to have created each other… starting with Jo writing her Skeptics Handbook, and Cook being tasked with a response to her handbook. and largely the public totally indifferent to both, and people who are skeptical or on the side of the climate concerned find their way and gravitate around like minded blogs.

    not that these blogs ever really created concerned people, or skeptical people. and of course. all of the above becomes personal for the people involved, John Cook, Jo Nova, etc.

    Like

  3. Barry Woods Avatar
    Barry Woods

    I mentioned a paper, and how a blog can create it’s opponent (Realclimate as an example) and how Skeptical Science in my opinion has/had a similar effect.. (and vice versa JoNova vs SkS)

    https://www.academia.edu/12247717/Why_are_people_sceptical_about_climate_change

    extract:
    “The second most cited blog, with 42 references, is RealClimate, a long-running blog promoting climate science run by a team of climate scientists. Comments from sceptics are critical of this blog, and many imply that reading it may have been a factor leading to scepticism. Some of these comments say that they were concerned by RealClimate’s arrogant or dismissive tone, or hostility towards those who disagreed with them. Others report that questions raised were not answered, or in some cases censored. Another blog promoting climate science, “Open Mind”, is mentioned seven times, with similar critical comments. Several individuals report that when they started looking into the climate change question, they started reading these blogs but were put off by their style and turned instead to the sceptical blog

    (as a personal ancedote, I survived for ~ 3 comments at Realclimate back in 2009, before being deleted and blocked.. I’d been referred there by an IPCC scientist whow was a co-editor of the 3rd IPCC report. I knew nothing about the climate change at the time, and went there on recommendation of this very good friend. and Realclimate managed to alienate me in a matter of hours, in a very similar manner as described in the paper. in fact the paper, may actually ref to me making it’s observations, as I re-counted my experiences of Realclimate on the blog The Air Vent, that the paper analysied) )

    Like

  4. Barry Woods Avatar
    Barry Woods

    seriously – this, in reference to Jo Nova?

    “I certainly don’t regard Jo Nova as a ‘science communicator’, and perhaps I should have made it clearer in my paper that this was her claim rather than mine. However, it’s an interesting point to consider: what do we call lawyers, teachers or doctors who’ve gone bad?” –

    why bad? ..because she has gone against the ‘consensus’.. ( the object of the consensus, (ie what specifically do they agree about, being so hard to define, that Skeptical Science really struggled to do so, – in their 97% consensus paper)in because they were concerned that all their definitions of the ‘consensus’ included sceptics views)

    leaked Skeptical Science moderators forum.
    http://www.hi-izuru.org/forum/The%20Consensus%20Project/2012-01-24-Defining%20the%20scientific%20consensus.html

    Then again, they were concerned about how they were going to market their 97% research result.. befiore they had done the ‘research’ (a reason many think them dishonest/activists)

    http://www.hi-izuru.org/forum/The%20Consensus%20Project/2012-01-19-Marketing%20Ideas.html

    (as one person commented)

    http://www.hi-izuru.org/forum/The%20Consensus%20Project/2012-01-19-Marketing%20Ideas.html

    ” I have to say that I find this planning of huge marketing strategies somewhat strange when we don’t even have our results in and the research subject is not that revolutionary either (just summarizing existing research). I’m not suggesting that you shouldn’t do this, but just that it seems a bit strange to me.” – Ari

    by this logic.. of ‘going bad’

    has Prof Lindzen ‘gone bad, has Dr Roger Pielke jnr gone ‘bad’ or Dr Roger Pielke snr, or Spencer, Cristy, Soon, Singer..? all gone ‘bad’, what of of Prof Judith Curry, or any Skeptical Science list (blacklist Pielke called it publicly) of scientists they call ‘climate misinformers’..

    then we go to Desmog blog’s database of scientists labelled ‘deniers’ – all gone bad? (like Will Happer, of Freeman Dyson, Don Keiller)

    maybe one day someone will decide you have ‘gone bad’…

    can they just be ‘wrong’ – with very specific examples given of why?

    Is this an example of subconcious pre-judging/prejudice.. which academics should be self aware enough to try to avoid..

    can you give a specific example of where Jo Nova as ‘bad’… (as it just seems, because she is a ‘climate sceptic’ that this is a ‘given’

    (I’m asking as a friend of hers.. and a more general point ref all those people above, and having written for Jo’s blog and WUWT, presumably I’m ‘bad’ as well)

    Like

  5. Jenni Metcalfe Avatar
    Jenni Metcalfe

    Hi Barry, it appears we agree about the polarising nature of climate change blogs, regardless of our differing opinions about who is credible or not, and that is the point of my article. And perhaps ‘gone bad’ was an unfortunate turn of phrase, especially given the nature of good and evil appears to be mostly subjective. Certainly, from my point of view as a science communicator the consensus climate science is what I need to be explaining simply and clearly to others, including all its uncertainties. Best wishes, Jenni

    Like

  6. Barry Woods Avatar
    Barry Woods

    Hi Jenni. I imagine Jo Nova see you as a climate communicator gone activist? perceptions are different from where ever you sit..

    Have you seen the new documentary – Planet of the Humans – the darling documentary of the political left documentary nature – Michael Moore. is basically now being accused of going ‘bad’ – demands of censorship, because he has looked at ‘big’ green energy and found it wanting… all his dreams of ble future shattered by big green financial interests..

    the social media reaction has been amazing from the environmentalists, basically trying to cancel him, and smear him… in exactly the same way they have every climate sceptic for a decade… the fact that he is just finding the same issues with renewable energy (vested financial, not very green, etc) as many ‘climate policy’ sceptics have for decades is by the by..

    note.. being sceptic of renewables is not necessarily to be sceptical of agw.. Moore remains very scared of climate change, and is of the too many humans persuasion. me. let’s just go for nuclear power, and a high tech solution (ie do no harm, and it works)

    Shellenberger is usually fairly sound for an analysis
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/04/21/new-michael-moore-backed-documentary-on-youtube-reveals-massive-ecological-impacts-of-renewables/#529db7906c96

    one for Brigitte perhaps.. to look at the reaction to Michael Moore committing green heresy.

    have you watched it yet?

    Like

    1. Brigitte Nerlich Avatar

      I’ll have a look!

      Like

    2. Brigitte Nerlich Avatar

      Just to be a bit cheeky regarding the distinction between science communicator and activist. Lets say science communicators decided to say that the earth moves round the sun, rather than that the sun moves round the earth, would they be activists? To communicate established science is not activism, is it?

      Like

  7. Barry Woods Avatar
    Barry Woods

    the immediate reaction, is always censor, excommunicate..

    “Director and activist Josh Fox, climate scientist Michael Mann and others signed a petition Friday asking Films for Action, one of the film’s distributors, to take down “Planet of the Humans” due to “errors, falsehoods and misinformation.”


    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/celebrities/2020/04/27/michael-moore-planet-humans-doc-out-talks-coronavirus/3031584001/

    this demand backfired and they backed off, as it was giving it even more publicity… ie from Moore’s worldview perspective. ‘big green’ vested financial interests, trying to cancel the truth!?

    Like

  8. Barry Woods Avatar
    Barry Woods

    ie.note the demand it be taken down for ‘misinformation’ (that word again..) and no actual examples… just take their word for it.

    Maybe Michael Moore to be added to Skeptical Science – Climate Misinformers page..? lol) .. or Desmog blogs – Deniers database. and yes I’ve seen Moore called that already. but they never actually give any specific examples of the misinformation…. it is enough to demand censorship. and to tell people don’t watch it. it is lies… (as political activists do)

    and the public. most go huh. can’t be bothered either way.. the climate activist and environmentalists say. ok, it’s terrible. and never watch it..because important people say so.

    and those slightly more sceptical/individualistic may say. well, let’s take a look… maybe it is terrible.. but I’ll decide for myself, thank you very much….

    and maybe another climate policy sceptic is born. and a convert to nuclear power (who is still worried by climate change?)

    Like

  9. Ben Pile Avatar

    In reference to the above comments, and in particular to the enduring attempt to ‘keep the conversation civil’ while emphasising ‘the relative credibility’ of sites and their authors, blogs, climate blog archaeologists hoping to establish the functioning of such virtue and ethics may wish to visit the discussion under my 2013 blog post at http://www.climate-resistance.org/2013/07/tom-curtis-doesnt-understand-the-97-paper.html .

    That post was itself spawned from my own contribution to this project at https://makingsciencepublic.com/2013/07/23/whats-behind-the-battle-of-received-wisdoms/ which discussed precisely that issue — the tendency of the climate ‘debate’ (such as it is) to become a battle of received wisdoms, ultimately at the expense of wisdom — the putative and contested objects of ‘science’ fading from the substance of those debates the more they emphasised ‘credibility’.

    It was there, too, seven years ago, that the commenter was so driven to emphasise my lack of credibility — I am not a climate scientist — that he failed to notice the problem that the approval of two climate scientists of my post created for his own argument. As he wrote,

    — “The real problem seems to be that they feel that their views (in general) should have the same credibility as those of professional climate scientists…” —

    Perhaps worse, he (not a climate scientist) was driven then to depend on the opinion of a (failed) academic philosopher, a PHd candidate psychologist and a non-climate non-scientist (co-authors of the disputed work) for doubling down on his ‘keeping the conversation civil’. All of them had been angered by the suggestion (from a non-climate-scientist equal) that the 97% survey had been poorly-conceived, and further enraged that such a view had received approval from ‘professional climate scientists’.

    It turns out that ‘credibility’ has nothing to do with ‘credibility’.

    Seven years has perhaps not been sufficient time for deeper reflection on what ‘credibility’ might mean for the evaluation of contested perspectives in debates. It remains under-theorised, other than for some cod cognitive science that hypothesises a ‘gateway belief model’ of science communication, under the logic of which the expression of unauthorised opinion is an existential danger to the human race and all life on Earth. Any project that begins from such a premise can therefore be not unfairly compared to medieval scholasticism and its adherents compared to an angry mad clergy, concerned by the moral and political authority of an institution waning in the face of challenges to its objective and normative claims. (NB, the comparison here is not between anyone and Galilei, but between self-appointed Enforcers of a new orthodoxy, and the excesses of the old Church. It is the fact of criticism, not its substance, which drives such anger.)

    ‘Civility’ might mean not speaking out of turn in a political order that demands deference and obedience. ‘Credibility’ might mean proximity to political authority. Evidence that this is the correct interpretation of those terms exists in the prolific nature of the project. There is barely an online discussion of consequence in which it has not been over-represented. A project which is intent on establishing an orthodoxy — rather than persuading through debate — is manifestly a project which is advanced in bad faith. Hence it finds itself booted out of conversations which would be civil without its help — and which usually are, on the very rare occasions where it has been absent. That is to say that the point of the project is to poison debate across lines of disagreement, which could otherwise be both possible and good-natured. The point is not to punish the expression of denial, but to deny its expression by punishing any provider of a platform for discussion across those lines that might seemingly lend the unorthodox argument “credibility”, as though debate itself was apostasy.

    Online squabbles, are of course, an enduring characteristic of the Internet. Hence, it should not be a surprise that online discussion fora do tend to develop particular cultures as one or other ‘public’ begins to dominate. The above is a preamble that may, therefore, look like so much he-said-she-said — bitterness generated by half a lifetime of such heated debates. But the point (which I also made in 2013) is that the quality of climate debate does not improve as one moves away from the Internet. It is notable also that the dominant players in the broader climate wars are people based in universities, with letters before and after their name, often occupying very senior positions in institutional science and policymaking. I.e. they are not anonymous trolls, in basements, without anything better to do, though you would not know it from the quality of their arguments in public.

    It is furthermore notable that, in contrast to the blogosphere, there are no counterparts — “deniers”, in the study’s terminology — in the broader public sphere. That is to say that “deniers”, in most of the world, including in the UK and Europe, have almost zero presence, much less formal representation on campuses, in institutional or commercial science, in mainstream political parties, in a constellation of civil-society organisations, in corporate lobbying, and on broadcast news media. Yet many of those seemingly respectable panjandrums will tell you otherwise, with a straight face, from institutions bearing the names of billionaire benefactors, that a conspiracy of private interests have distorted the public debate. Needless to say, they are unable to quantify their claims, much less to put those quantities into comparison with a project the scale of the climate agenda: supranational organisations, almost all western governments, all of the universities, all political parties and so on — and all their resources.

    Are there even as many active climate ‘denial’ bloggers and commenters as there are researchers active in the science communications and science studies fields that make such blogs the object of their study? It seems very possible to me that there are not. And yet this possibility should invite a further comparison: the resources available to researchers are vastly greater than those available to bloggers. I write this comment on the research on time borrowed from scraping a living — as do most climate bloggers. Are my counterparts? Many,including the one preoccupied by ‘civility’ and ‘credibility,’ are tenured. In contrast, I can think of fewer than half a dozen FTE positions in the UK which are given to criticism of the climate agenda at all, none of which enjoy anything at all that resembles tenure.

    Yet there seems to be an endless stream of ‘science communicators’ desperate to lead the public towards ecological utopia. There are armies of NGO hacks. There are hundreds of ‘civil society’ organisations and think tanks, in the UK alone, almost all of which, if they have taken a position on climate, have taken the pro-consensus position. Your chances of getting a job at any of those organisations, if you have a detectable sceptic view of the climate debate are zero.

    What I am suggesting here is that any ‘research’ which makes “denial” the object of its study begins from an position of abandoning any sense of proportion. Researchers are forced to study ‘denial’ blogs because there is almost no other expression of ‘denial’ in public life. Yet ‘denial’ vexes researchers and their funders. Isn’t that worthy of study? Why does it provoke such institutional rage?

    What is the proportion? How many green vs brown FTEs are there, engaged in formal climate debates? What are the resources available to them? I suggests that the difference is at least three, and perhaps as many as six orders of magnitude. Blogs are seemingly the primary vehicle of climate scepticism, whereas the focus of the climate agenda is an annual conference, attended by nearly every government, every NGO, every global corporation, thousands of activists, scientists and journalists, from which critics are all but banned. And that is just the start of the pro climate agenda’s formal expression.

    The disparity is sufficient to call academic preoccupation with ‘denial’ a madness.

    It is a constant source of amazement to me, therefore, that recalcitrant climate bloggers are the object of “research”, which takes for granted the dominant categories of that overwhelmingly predominant orthodoxy: “science” versus “denial”. It seems implausible to me that a scientific hypothesis could unite so many hitherto disparate and counter-posed public organisations, nations, institutions and enterprises without a great deal of ideological glue. There is evidently more going on than ‘science’, and thus ‘research’ is much more than it claims to be.

    Why are academic researchers so interested in establishing a critical understanding of ‘denial’, but not of the far, far, far more consequential orthodoxy? Why are the dynamics of blogs of interest to academics, but not the dynamics of intergovernmental fora and academia? Why are the psychological profiles of ‘deniers’ a matter for cognitive scientists, but not the psyches of green alarmists, spivs and chancers? Oh, and scientists?

    Added to the failure to bring a sense of proportion to research, then, there exists a failure of good faith — ‘ethics’, if you will. So much research on how ‘denial’ is expressed, what motivates its expression, and how it may be defeated. But so little academic commentary is concerned with what has been said, and what it has been said in response to. No, it is not just a response to the claim ‘climate change is real’. It is just as much a response to an orthodoxy, the ascendancy of which has gone without scrutiny of any kind, as rooted in ideology as any 20th century political movement, the facts and consequences of which most academics seem wilfully blind. Full disclosure: I think it is a dangerous ideological movement, made all the more dangerous by blindness to itself, and that is my motivation.

    Guess what… Academia produces its own ‘publics’. Try it. Try being a critic of sustainability at any one of a number of ‘research’ organisations whose mission statement is ‘sustainability’. Try getting a grant for a study which reflects critically on, rather than promotes sustainability, from the ESRC. Try going to an academic conference and expressing a view that runs counter to the conference’s prevailing orthodoxy. Try getting a paper on it published. See for yourself if blogs are any more or less hostile to alternative perspectives than academe. If there are any substantial differences between what you observe in blogs and what can be seen on any campus, I will be surprised, and will agree that the dynamics of blogs are more worthy of study than the dynamics of research organisations, leaving aside the fact that ‘research’ organisations are called on to inform policy-making processes, and are funded by public money and legacies from politically-oriented philanthropic foundations whereas blogs — not ‘denial’ blogs, anyhow — are not.

    And try the other fora too — the broadcasters, the civil society organisations, the political parties… And then tell me that blog-based research is of any consequence, and not a motivated distraction.

    Like

  10. Ben Pile Avatar

    I am having trouble posting this. It is perhaps too long. I shall try posting in two parts.

    In reference to the above comments, and in particular to the enduring attempt to ‘keep the conversation civil’ while emphasising ‘the relative credibility’ of sites and their authors, blogs, climate blog archaeologists hoping to establish the functioning of such virtue and ethics may wish to visit the discussion under my 2013 blog post at http://www.climate-resistance.org/2013/07/tom-curtis-doesnt-understand-the-97-paper.html .

    That post was itself spawned from my own contribution to this project at https://makingsciencepublic.com/2013/07/23/whats-behind-the-battle-of-received-wisdoms/ which discussed precisely that issue — the tendency of the climate ‘debate’ (such as it is) to become a battle of received wisdoms, ultimately at the expense of wisdom — the putative and contested objects of ‘science’ fading from the substance of those debates the more they emphasised ‘credibility’.

    It was there, too, seven years ago, that the commenter was so driven to emphasise my lack of credibility — I am not a climate scientist — that he failed to notice the problem that the approval of two climate scientists of my post created for his own argument. As he wrote,

    — “The real problem seems to be that they feel that their views (in general) should have the same credibility as those of professional climate scientists…” —

    Perhaps worse, he (not a climate scientist) was driven then to depend on the opinion of a (failed) academic philosopher, a PHd candidate psychologist and a non-climate non-scientist (co-authors of the disputed work) for doubling down on his ‘keeping the conversation civil’. All of them had been angered by the suggestion (from a non-climate-scientist equal) that the 97% survey had been poorly-conceived, and further enraged that such a view had received approval from ‘professional climate scientists’.

    It turns out that ‘credibility’ has nothing to do with ‘credibility’.

    Seven years has perhaps not been sufficient time for deeper reflection on what ‘credibility’ might mean for the evaluation of contested perspectives in debates. It remains under-theorised, other than for some cod cognitive science that hypothesises a ‘gateway belief model’ of science communication, under the logic of which the expression of unauthorised opinion is an existential danger to the human race and all life on Earth. Any project that begins from such a premise can therefore be not unfairly compared to medieval scholasticism and its adherents compared to an angry mad clergy, concerned by the moral and political authority of an institution waning in the face of challenges to its objective and normative claims. (NB, the comparison here is not between anyone and Galilei, but between self-appointed Enforcers of a new orthodoxy, and the excesses of the old Church. It is the fact of criticism, not its substance, which drives such anger.)

    ‘Civility’ might mean not speaking out of turn in a political order that demands deference and obedience. ‘Credibility’ might mean proximity to political authority. Evidence that this is the correct interpretation of those terms exists in the prolific nature of the project. There is barely an online discussion of consequence in which it has not been over-represented. A project which is intent on establishing an orthodoxy — rather than persuading through debate — is manifestly a project which is advanced in bad faith. Hence it finds itself booted out of conversations which would be civil without its help — and which usually are, on the very rare occasions where it has been absent. That is to say that the point of the project is to poison debate across lines of disagreement, which could otherwise be both possible and good-natured. The point is not to punish the expression of denial, but to deny its expression by punishing any provider of a platform for discussion across those lines that might seemingly lend the unorthodox argument “credibility”, as though debate itself was apostasy.

    Like

  11. Ben Pile Avatar

    I am having trouble posting this. It is perhaps too long. I shall try posting in parts.

    In reference to the above comments, and in particular to the enduring attempt to ‘keep the conversation civil’ while emphasising ‘the relative credibility’ of sites and their authors, blogs, climate blog archaeologists hoping to establish the functioning of such virtue and ethics may wish to visit the discussion under my 2013 blog post at http://www.climate-resistance.org/2013/07/tom-curtis-doesnt-understand-the-97-paper.html .

    That post was itself spawned from my own contribution to this project at https://makingsciencepublic.com/2013/07/23/whats-behind-the-battle-of-received-wisdoms/ which discussed precisely that issue — the tendency of the climate ‘debate’ (such as it is) to become a battle of received wisdoms, ultimately at the expense of wisdom — the putative and contested objects of ‘science’ fading from the substance of those debates the more they emphasised ‘credibility’.

    It was there, too, seven years ago, that the commenter was so driven to emphasise my lack of credibility — I am not a climate scientist — that he failed to notice the problem that the approval of two climate scientists of my post created for his own argument. As he wrote,

    — “The real problem seems to be that they feel that their views (in general) should have the same credibility as those of professional climate scientists…” —

    Perhaps worse, he (not a climate scientist) was driven then to depend on the opinion of a (failed) academic philosopher, a PHd candidate psychologist and a non-climate non-scientist (co-authors of the disputed work) for doubling down on his ‘keeping the conversation civil’. All of them had been angered by the suggestion (from a non-climate-scientist equal) that the 97% survey had been poorly-conceived, and further enraged that such a view had received approval from ‘professional climate scientists’.

    It turns out that ‘credibility’ has nothing to do with ‘credibility’.

    Like

  12. BenPile Avatar
    BenPile

    In reference to the above comments, and in particular to the enduring attempt to ‘keep the conversation civil’ while emphasising ‘the relative credibility’ of sites and their authors, blogs, climate blog archaeologists hoping to establish the functioning of such virtue and ethics may wish to visit the discussion under my 2013 blog post at http://www.climate-resistance.org/2013/07/tom-curtis-doesnt-understand-the-97-paper.html .

    That post was itself spawned from my own contribution to this project at https://makingsciencepublic.com/2013/07/23/whats-behind-the-battle-of-received-wisdoms/ which discussed precisely that issue — the tendency of the climate ‘debate’ (such as it is) to become a battle of received wisdoms, ultimately at the expense of wisdom — the putative and contested objects of ‘science’ fading from the substance of those debates the more they emphasised ‘credibility’.

    It was there, too, seven years ago, that the commenter was so driven to emphasise my lack of credibility — I am not a climate scientist — that he failed to notice the problem that the approval of two climate scientists of my post created for his own argument. As he wrote,

    — “The real problem seems to be that they feel that their views (in general) should have the same credibility as those of professional climate scientists…” —

    Perhaps worse, he (not a climate scientist) was driven then to depend on the opinion of a (failed) academic philosopher, a PHd candidate psychologist and a non-climate non-scientist (co-authors of the disputed work) for doubling down on his ‘keeping the conversation civil’. All of them had been angered by the suggestion (from a non-climate-scientist equal) that the 97% survey had been poorly-conceived, and further enraged that such a view had received approval from ‘professional climate scientists’.

    It turns out that ‘credibility’ has nothing to do with ‘credibility’.

    Seven years has perhaps not been sufficient time for deeper reflection on what ‘credibility’ might mean for the evaluation of contested perspectives in debates. It remains under-theorised, other than for some cod cognitive science that hypothesises a ‘gateway belief model’ of science communication, under the logic of which the expression of unauthorised opinion is an existential danger to the human race and all life on Earth. Any project that begins from such a premise can therefore be not unfairly compared to medieval scholasticism and its adherents compared to an angry mad clergy, concerned by the moral and political authority of an institution waning in the face of challenges to its objective and normative claims. (NB, the comparison here is not between anyone and Galilei, but between self-appointed Enforcers of a new orthodoxy, and the excesses of the old Church. It is the fact of criticism, not its substance, which drives such anger.)

    ‘Civility’ might mean not speaking out of turn in a political order that demands deference and obedience. ‘Credibility’ might mean proximity to political authority. Evidence that this is the correct interpretation of those terms exists in the prolific nature of the project. There is barely an online discussion of consequence in which it has not been over-represented. A project which is intent on establishing an orthodoxy — rather than persuading through debate — is manifestly a project which is advanced in bad faith. Hence it finds itself booted out of conversations which would be civil without its help — and which usually are, on the very rare occasions where it has been absent. That is to say that the point of the project is to poison debate across lines of disagreement, which could otherwise be both possible and good-natured. The point is not to punish the expression of denial, but to deny its expression by punishing any provider of a platform for discussion across those lines that might seemingly lend the unorthodox argument “credibility”, as though debate itself was apostasy.

    Online squabbles, are of course, an enduring characteristic of the Internet. Hence, it should not be a surprise that online discussion fora do tend to develop particular cultures as one or other ‘public’ begins to dominate. The above is a preamble that may, therefore, look like so much he-said-she-said — bitterness generated by half a lifetime of such heated debates. But the point (which I also made in 2013) is that the quality of climate debate does not improve as one moves away from the Internet. It is notable also that the dominant players in the broader climate wars are people based in universities, with letters before and after their name, often occupying very senior positions in institutional science and policymaking. I.e. they are not anonymous trolls, in basements, without anything better to do, though you would not know it from the quality of their arguments in public.

    It is furthermore notable that, in contrast to the blogosphere, there are no counterparts — “deniers”, in the study’s terminology — in the broader public sphere. That is to say that “deniers”, in most of the world, including in the UK and Europe, have almost zero presence, much less formal representation on campuses, in institutional or commercial science, in mainstream political parties, in a constellation of civil-society organisations, in corporate lobbying, and on broadcast news media. Yet many of those seemingly respectable panjandrums will tell you otherwise, with a straight face, from institutions bearing the names of billionaire benefactors, that a conspiracy of private interests have distorted the public debate. Needless to say, they are unable to quantify their claims, much less to put those quantities into comparison with a project the scale of the climate agenda: supranational organisations, almost all western governments, all of the universities, all political parties and so on — and all their resources.

    Are there even as many active climate ‘denial’ bloggers and commenters as there are researchers active in the science communications and science studies fields that make such blogs the object of their study? It seems very possible to me that there are not. And yet this possibility should invite a further comparison: the resources available to researchers are vastly greater than those available to bloggers. I write this comment on the research on time borrowed from scraping a living — as do most climate bloggers. Are my counterparts? Many,including the one preoccupied by ‘civility’ and ‘credibility,’ are tenured. In contrast, I can think of fewer than half a dozen FTE positions in the UK which are given to criticism of the climate agenda at all, none of which enjoy anything at all that resembles tenure.

    Yet there seems to be an endless stream of ‘science communicators’ desperate to lead the public towards ecological utopia. There are armies of NGO hacks. There are hundreds of ‘civil society’ organisations and think tanks, in the UK alone, almost all of which, if they have taken a position on climate, have taken the pro-consensus position. Your chances of getting a job at any of those organisations, if you have a detectable sceptic view of the climate debate are zero.

    What I am suggesting here is that any ‘research’ which makes “denial” the object of its study begins from an position of abandoning any sense of proportion. Researchers are forced to study ‘denial’ blogs because there is almost no other expression of ‘denial’ in public life. Yet ‘denial’ vexes researchers and their funders. Isn’t that worthy of study? Why does it provoke such institutional rage?

    What is the proportion? How many green vs brown FTEs are there, engaged in formal climate debates? What are the resources available to them? I suggests that the difference is at least three, and perhaps as many as six orders of magnitude. Blogs are seemingly the primary vehicle of climate scepticism, whereas the focus of the climate agenda is an annual conference, attended by nearly every government, every NGO, every global corporation, thousands of activists, scientists and journalists, from which critics are all but banned. And that is just the start of the pro climate agenda’s formal expression.

    The disparity is sufficient to call academic preoccupation with ‘denial’ a madness.

    It is a constant source of amazement to me, therefore, that recalcitrant climate bloggers are the object of “research”, which takes for granted the dominant categories of that overwhelmingly predominant orthodoxy: “science” versus “denial”. It seems implausible to me that a scientific hypothesis could unite so many hitherto disparate and counter-posed public organisations, nations, institutions and enterprises without a great deal of ideological glue. There is evidently more going on than ‘science’, and thus ‘research’ is much more than it claims to be.

    Why are academic researchers so interested in establishing a critical understanding of ‘denial’, but not of the far, far, far more consequential orthodoxy? Why are the dynamics of blogs of interest to academics, but not the dynamics of intergovernmental fora and academia? Why are the psychological profiles of ‘deniers’ a matter for cognitive scientists, but not the psyches of green alarmists, spivs and chancers? Oh, and scientists?

    Added to the failure to bring a sense of proportion to research, then, there exists a failure of good faith — ‘ethics’, if you will. So much research on how ‘denial’ is expressed, what motivates its expression, and how it may be defeated. But so little academic commentary is concerned with what has been said, and what it has been said in response to. No, it is not just a response to the claim ‘climate change is real’. It is just as much a response to an orthodoxy, the ascendancy of which has gone without scrutiny of any kind, as rooted in ideology as any 20th century political movement, the facts and consequences of which most academics seem wilfully blind. Full disclosure: I think it is a dangerous ideological movement, made all the more dangerous by blindness to itself, and that is my motivation.

    Guess what… Academia produces its own ‘publics’. Try it. Try being a critic of sustainability at any one of a number of ‘research’ organisations whose mission statement is ‘sustainability’. Try getting a grant for a study which reflects critically on, rather than promotes sustainability, from the ESRC. Try going to an academic conference and expressing a view that runs counter to the conference’s prevailing orthodoxy. Try getting a paper on it published. See for yourself if blogs are any more or less hostile to alternative perspectives than academe. If there are any substantial differences between what you observe in blogs and what can be seen on any campus, I will be surprised, and will agree that the dynamics of blogs are more worthy of study than the dynamics of research organisations, leaving aside the fact that ‘research’ organisations are called on to inform policy-making processes, and are funded by public money and legacies from politically-oriented philanthropic foundations whereas blogs — not ‘denial’ blogs, anyhow — are not.

    And try the other fora too — the broadcasters, the civil society organisations, the political parties… And then tell me that blog-based research is of any consequence, and not a motivated distraction.

    Like

  13. BenPile Avatar
    BenPile

    I am having trouble posting here. It may be too long a comment. I’ll try posting in parts.

    In reference to the above comments, and in particular to the enduring attempt to ‘keep the conversation civil’ while emphasising ‘the relative credibility’ of sites and their authors, blogs, climate blog archaeologists hoping to establish the functioning of such virtue and ethics may wish to visit the discussion under my 2013 blog post at http://www.climate-resistance.org/2013/07/tom-curtis-doesnt-understand-the-97-paper.html .

    That post was itself spawned from my own contribution to this project at https://makingsciencepublic.com/2013/07/23/whats-behind-the-battle-of-received-wisdoms/ which discussed precisely that issue — the tendency of the climate ‘debate’ (such as it is) to become a battle of received wisdoms, ultimately at the expense of wisdom — the putative and contested objects of ‘science’ fading from the substance of those debates the more they emphasised ‘credibility’.

    It was there, too, seven years ago, that the commenter was so driven to emphasise my lack of credibility — I am not a climate scientist — that he failed to notice the problem that the approval of two climate scientists of my post created for his own argument. As he wrote,

    — “The real problem seems to be that they feel that their views (in general) should have the same credibility as those of professional climate scientists…” —

    Perhaps worse, he (not a climate scientist) was driven then to depend on the opinion of a (failed) academic philosopher, a PHd candidate psychologist and a non-climate non-scientist (co-authors of the disputed work) for doubling down on his ‘keeping the conversation civil’. All of them had been angered by the suggestion (from a non-climate-scientist equal) that the 97% survey had been poorly-conceived, and further enraged that such a view had received approval from ‘professional climate scientists’.

    It turns out that ‘credibility’ has nothing to do with ‘credibility’.

    Like

  14. Barry Woods Avatar
    Barry Woods

    Brigitte Nerlich
    Just to be a bit cheeky regarding the distinction between science communicator and activist. Lets say science communicators decided to say that the earth moves round the sun, rather than that the sun moves round the earth, would they be activists? To communicate established science is not activism, is it?

    But that isn’t what is happening.. unless you can find someone actually doing something equivocally as silly.. so why say that.? As we are specifically talking about Jo Nova and SKS, unless you can give an example of either doing something as silly, or anyone else for that matter

    Like

  15. Barry Woods Avatar
    Barry Woods

    Brigitte Nerlich
    Just to be a bit cheeky regarding the distinction between science communicator and activist. Lets say science communicators decided to say that the earth moves round the sun, rather than that the sun moves round the earth, would they be activists? To communicate established science is not activism, is it?

    But that isn’t what is happening.. unless you can find someone actually doing something equivocally as silly.. so why say that.? As we are specifically talking about Jo Nova and SKS, unless you can give an example of either doing something as silly, or anyone else for that matter

    Like

  16. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Brigitte,

    “Just to be a bit cheeky,” as you say, the result you call “established science” is anything but.

    It may well be the consensus (at least among the public, and even among science journalists perhaps) that the Earth moves around the Sun and the Sun does NOT move around the Earth.

    But unless they repealed Newton’s Third Law of Motion when I wasn’t looking, that’s not actually (how shall I put this?) true.

    When Torvill and Dean lock hands and spin on the ice as a binary system, do you tell your students that the man is stationary and the woman—being less massive—moves around him?

    Because that’s in effect what you’re “communicating” when you assert that the Sun simply stays where it is while the Earth does all the orbiting.

    The truth is that they orbit each other, mutually exerting equal and opposite gravitational pulls. Because their masses are vastly different a superficial observer may get the impression that the Sun is imperturbable, but no scientist who remembers her physics ought to fall for that.

    Your misconception, and my correction thereof, are a perfect example of the benefits of dialogue. You provided the cheek (thesis), I turned the other cheek (antithesis), and the reader is now better equipped to come to her own synthesis.

    Heck, my counterclaim could be improved on for all I know, so why limit it to two voices? An anti-anti-thesis might help get us even closer to good science.

    Suppose you’d had your science communicator hat on right now, Brigitte.

    Had you simply decreed (what you thought was) The Truth and forbidden back-talk, or declared that anyone contrary enough to disagree with you had to submit their claims to the time-consuming and questionable litmus-test of academic peer review before earning the right to be heard, you would have done your students, readers, audience, visitors, public etc. a disservice, wouldn’t you?

    Despite what I’m sure were the best intentions, and with the utmost confidence that you were behaving in accordance with “established science,” you would have taken the first step from science to religion. It’s a slippery slope, my friend.

    Like

  17. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Brigitte,

    “Just to be a bit cheeky,” as you say, the result you call “established science” is anything but.

    It may well be the consensus (at least among the public, and even among science journalists perhaps) that the Earth moves around the Sun and the Sun does NOT move around the Earth.

    But unless they repealed Newton’s Third Law of Motion when I wasn’t looking, that’s not actually (how shall I put this?) true.

    When Torvill and Dean lock hands and spin on the ice as a binary system, do you tell your students that the man is stationary and the woman—being less massive—moves around him?

    Because that’s in effect what you’re “communicating” when you imply that the Sun stays put while the Earth does all the orbiting.

    The truth is that they orbit each other, mutually exerting equal and opposite gravitational pulls. Because their masses are vastly different a superficial observer may get the impression that the Sun is imperturbable, but no scientist who remembers her physics ought to fall for that.

    Your misconception, and my correction thereof, make a perfect example of the benefits of dialogue. You provided the cheek (thesis), I turned the other cheek (antithesis), and the reader is now better equipped to come to her own synthesis.

    Heck, my counterclaim could also be improved on for all I know, so why limit this to two voices? An anti-anti-thesis might help get us even closer to good science.

    Suppose you’d had your science communicator hat on right now, Brigitte.

    Had you simply decreed (what you thought was) The Truth and forbidden back-talk, or declared that anyone contrary enough to disagree with you had to submit their claims to the time-consuming and questionable litmus-test of academic peer review before earning the right to be heard, you would have done your students, readers, audience, visitors, public etc. a disservice, wouldn’t you?

    Despite what I’m sure were the best intentions, and with the utmost confidence that you were behaving in accordance with “established science,” you would have taken the first step from science to religion. It’s a slippery slope, my friend.

    Like

    1. Brigitte Nerlich Avatar

      Sorry everybody these many comments did not come up in my emails! Something is wrong with the system. And now I have little time to deal with them as I have a bit of a family emergency to deal with today. Will look soon. In the meantime thank you all for engaging so actively in dialogue. I knew I was falling into a trap of my own making when saying what I said. I should have found a better example. But you all know what I mean, don’t you?

      Like

  18. Barry Woods Avatar
    Barry Woods

    Brigitte Nerlich
    Just to be a bit cheeky regarding the distinction between science communicator and activist. Lets say science communicators decided to say that the earth moves round the sun, rather than that the sun moves round the earth, would they be activists? To communicate established science is not activism, is it?

    But that isn’t what is happening.. unless you can find someone actually doing something equivocally as silly.. so why say that.? As we are specifically talking about Jo Nova and SKS, unless you can give an example of either doing something as silly, or anyone else for that matter.. what was the point of that comment..utterly unhelpful and irrelevant, or do you think Jo Nova is actually like that,but not quite brave enough to say so directly..

    Whenever anyone says don’t look at because misinformation, without any actual specifics. .. every academic especially, should be thinking, what specifically is ‘misinformation’ and look for themselves… to check.if it is true.

    Like

    1. Brigitte Nerlich Avatar

      This was meant as a reductio ad absurdum (of the claim that science communicators who choose to communicate the mainstream science, rather than the non-mainstream one are activists), but I admit that I failed because I wrote in haste – and as we know: ‘write in haste, regret at leisure’! I hope….

      Like

  19. geoff chambers Avatar

    …and Then There’s Physics in the first comment is right to point out that moderation has an effect on civility. For example, the fact that several writers at our blog cliscep.com (including, I think, Barry) have regularly had comments removed at Physics’s blog, means that when he comments at our blog (which he used to do frequently, and is always free to do) he is sometimes received uncivilly. It’s unfortunate, but it’s in the nature of blogging, I’m afraid.

    Your choice of Jo Nova and John Cook as examples is a good one, because John Cook’s blog was set up specifically to counter Jo Nova’s blog, and they’ve been circling each other ever since.

    They are not of equivalent scientific weight, as you note. For example, Cook has written a peer-reviewed paper naming Jo Nova as the originator of conspiracy theories, and accusing her of various psychological failings, such as false belief in nefarious intent, nihilistic skepticism, and acting the persecuted victim – of suffering from paranoid delusions, in other words. Nova’s response was not a reply in the peer-reviewed literature, but mockery, in which she was joined by several hundred thousand other people. The paper was retracted and replaced by another, in which the original data – quotes from blogs by Nova and scores of other people – have been altered in an unsuccessful attempt to disguise their origin. The fact that Cook’s first peer reviewed paper should be based entirely on data that he claims to have made up himself tells us something about the state of social science perhaps? Up to you science communicators to tell us exactly what.

    Like

  20. ...and Then There's Physics Avatar

    Jenni,

    Certainly, from my point of view as a science communicator the consensus climate science is what I need to be explaining simply and clearly to others, including all its uncertainties.

    Certainly I agree with this, and I think it’s pretty straightforward to work out which science communicators are doing this, and which ones are not. I’m not sure, though, in what way your current paper plays a role in helping us to do this. Is there some broad conclusion you could draw from it that would help us to better ensure that science communication involves communicating the consensus climate science (with uncertainties)?

    Like

  21. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Brigitte,

    sorry for any impatience exuded on my part earlier, as a result of apparently being unable to post here.

    You say, presumably in reference to the Sun-Earth orbital example, that:

    I should have found a better example. But you all know what I mean, don’t you?

    Sort of. Presumably you meant something more like: choosing to communicate that in humans, the blood circulates through one-way vessels, rather than communicating that in humans, the blood is pumped from the heart out to the periphery of the body, slows, stops, reverses and goes back the same way it came (as some anatomists used to believe)?

    of the claim that science communicators who choose to communicate the mainstream science, rather than the non-mainstream one are activists

    I’ve never in all my years on this planet seen or heard the claim:

    “Science communicators who choose to communicate the mainstream science, rather than the non-mainstream one are activists.”

    …or anything logically tantamount to it.

    Absent a quote, I’m forced to assume you’ve just imagined it. (Of course you may have premeditatedly strawmanned it—but then, I have no evidence that you’re a dishonest person, so I presume that’s NOT what you did.)

    There is only one stream in science, by the way. So your paraphrased “claim” also suffers from an incoherency issue.

    If by “mainstream” you mean “majority-endorsed” then you’re clearly talking about climate science, and your comment is meaningless outside climate science.

    After all, climate science is the only field for which that information (percentage endorsement) is available, and only for a single hypothesis therein (albeit one that nobody seems to be able to articulate twice without changing a few words each time)!

    So your argument is limited in scope to ONE HYPOTHESIS out of the countless millions which a “science communicator” is likely to be concerned with communicating.

    The consensus information is available because of a cottage industry of consensus studies going back to Oreskes.

    It started when Naomi Oreskes got a one-page-long joke of an “article” published in a special, non-peer-reviewed “Essay” section of Science in December 2004.

    She then spent the next 16 years changing her story about what percentage of papers she actually found that Agreed.

    In 2007, for instance, she published a graph of Oreskes04 showing that ~235 out of 928 papers had Agreed.

    Eight years later, she produced another graph of Oreskes04 (when she was consulting for the movie Merchants of Doubt) that showed all 928 out of 928 papers had Agreed!

    She has also referred in various writings to the Agreed number as “very few” and “almost none.”

    To be clear, these different and hard-to-reconcile descriptions are all about the SAME survey, the one she did in 2004.

    I just mention all this to give you some sense of the integrity (or lack thereof) of the foundations underpinning the Consensus Science movement—which, if you ask anyone who understands the scientific method, doesn’t belong in science to begin with.

    I posted a more detailed catalysis of Prof Oreskes’ Magical Shifting Consensus at WUWT:

    Oreskes, Harvard and the Destruction of Scientific Revolutions

    Of course, proving that the intellectual progenitor of the climate-consensus-quantifying school of “thought” is a dishonest person might not be considered to prove very much, other than that she’s a dishonest person. (If you think it doesn’t prove much, please say so and I’ll be happy to explain why I think it proves a bit more than that.)

    Finally, your Problem With Ken (or rather Ken’s Problem with You).

    From what I could ascertain before nodding off, Ken Rice appears to object to the very fact that you compared and contrasted two websites of which he (Ken) considers one evil (spit!) and the other good (Hallelujah!), and which he (Ken) would be MUCH more careful to avoid giving the impression of treating symmetrically, even for the PURPOSES of comparison and contrast—or mentioning in the same sentence, for that matter, if he could help it.

    Ken’s beef with your approach is religious, in other words. All to do with ideological purity.

    In case it helps, you might want to bear in mind that Ken literally doesn’t know what the word ‘science’ means.

    This he proved one day at his own blog:

    Expertise

    Ken’s is an ignorance which has never stopped him lecturing others on scientific matters, but which would surely give a real “science communicator” some pause.

    Like

    1. Brigitte Nerlich Avatar

      My cheeky comment was in reply to a comment by Barry saying “I imagine Jo Nova see you [Jenni, communicating mainstream science] as a climate communicator gone activist?” Perhaps I misunderstood that comment.
      I am Brigitte, by the way.
      Ken’s comment was about Jenni’s study and I want to leave it to Jenny to reply.
      I should not have butted in I suppose, and confused everything by replying to Barry.

      Like

  22. ...and Then There's Physics Avatar

    From what I could ascertain before nodding off, Ken Rice appears to object to the very fact that you *compared and contrasted* two websites of which he (Ken) considers one evil (spit!) and the other good (Hallelujah!), and which he (Ken) would be MUCH more careful to avoid giving the impression of treating symmetrically, even for the PURPOSES of comparison and contrast—or mentioning in the same sentence, for that matter, if he could help it.

    A bit of an exaggeration there. I don’t object. I was expressing a view that there’s a risk that some might interpret this as implying some kind of equivalence, when – in my view – there is a vast difference in terms of the credibility of the information presented on the two sites (I don’t recall Skeptical Science ever presenting some special solar climate model that would explain global warming as being pre-dominantly due to the Sun).

    However, I don’t disagree with the conclusions of the study (it seems pretty reasonable) and maybe it is worth thinking a bit more about polarisation in climate blog comment threads. It is actually something I have spent quite some time thinking about, but have mostly concluded that it’s unavoidable and impossible to do anything about. I may, of course, be wrong and maybe others will come up with some way of improving the situation.

    Like

  23. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Firstly, my apologies for getting Jennifer and Brigitte mixed up in my posts above. It’s my fault, not Brigitte’s.

    I just wanted to add that an interesting next step for (Jennifer’s) research might be this question:

    How does the average climate blog become a choir-preaching echo chamber?

    Did they all start out that way, or do they at some point in time host a genuine diversity of commenters?

    If so, what happens? Does the proprietor of the blog slowly kick out everyone who doesn’t agree with him/her? Do they leave of their own accord? Do they leave because they’re verbally abused?

    In my experience (in case you want to know it), the answer to all the above questions depends on which “Side” of the debate you’re talking about.

    As a VERY broad generalization with lots of exceptions (but lots more NON-exceptions), my answer is:

    Believers don’t choose to visit Denier sites.

    Deniers do choose to visit Believer sites, but are progressively banned for a range of reasons, from:

    they are rude to the Believers, so the owner gets rid of them (usually in response to complaints)

    to:

    they discredit and embarrass the owner, so the owner gets rid of them (of his/her own volition)

    … and many more besides, I’m sure.

    But I could be wrong (or lying)—so that’s what science is for, right?

    In any case, THAT’S a study I would be very interested in reading.

    One methodological difficulty you’ll encounter, of course, is that so many comments—including the critical ones that result in people leaving or getting banned—are redacted. So you might have to limit your scope to relatively censorship-free blogs.

    Like

  24. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Ken,

    you just confirmed my characterization of your criticism/concern/misgiving/objection/whatever:

    You fear the wrong message could be sent by implying some sort of equivalence between blogs you consider to be of totally incommensurable “credibility,” whatever that decidedly non-scientific noun means.

    It’s telling that your indictment of JoNova’s blog is substantiated by this:

    “(I don’t recall Skeptical Science ever presenting some special solar climate model that would explain global warming as being pre-dominantly due to the Sun).”

    Let me get this straight.

    In your view, “presenting” (as true? for consideration? for discussion?) a “special” (heterodox?) model that “would” (if it were correct?) explain something as being pre-dominantly due to something you (Ken) refuse to believe any reasonable scientist could possibly think it’s due to… DISCREDITS JoNova’s blog!

    You’ve heard of “damning by faint praise”, I trust?

    You just praised JoNova’s site by faint damnation.

    What you just described, unless you wildly mis-described it, is just the kind of thing any reasonable, “credible”[?] science blog would be perfectly within its rights to do.

    But it’s a heretical explanation, so we all know SkS would never be so irresponsible as to even “present” such a “model,” don’t we? LOL!

    (Any scientist reading your comments and mine must be starting to form a sense by now of which of the two blogs comes closer to deserving the epithet “scientific.”)

    Like

  25. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Thanks for partially de-opacifying that for me, Brigitte 🙂

    Like

    1. Brigitte Nerlich Avatar

      You’re welcome. Now I have to cook!

      Like

  26. geoff chambers Avatar

    ATTP: “Is there some broad conclusion you could draw from it that would help us to better ensure that science communication involves communicating the consensus climate science (with uncertainties)?”

    Here’s a handy hint. Try citing the IPCC every time someone says something silly. For example, each time that a journalist or striking schoolgirl or nutter superglued to the pavement (e.g. George Monbiot) claims that a flood or wildfire or hurricane is a sign of impending doom, point out that the scientific consensus is that there is little evidence that extreme weather events have increased over the past hundred years. You and we at cliscep agree about that, so why not pool our resources and defend the science together?

    Like

  27. ...and Then There's Physics Avatar

    the scientific consensus is that there is little evidence that extreme weather events have increased over the past hundred years. You and we at cliscep agree about that, so why not pool our resources and defend the science together?

    Because I don’t agree about that and it’s not correct.

    Like

  28. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Geoff, I hate to ruin an ecumenical moment, but:

    “why not pool our resources and defend the science together?”

    1) because Ken is exclusively interested in “defending the science” [sic, sic, sic] against dezaggeration, whereas we’re primarily interested in … er… doing said verb… against EGGzaggeration.

    Of course, it’s almost impossible to understate the impacts of climate change on human life, hence the asymmetry of workloads.

    Ken couldn’t care less that the Global Humanitarian Foundation, Kofi Annan and innumerable and immemorable other worthies said with a straight face, back in 2009, that 300,000 people per year were dying of climate change.

    Nor that the climate establishment en masse, sensu lato, de facto, en bloc und so weiter has silently slunk back from that indefensible and slightly comical lie now that COVID-19 has reminded ordinary people what 200,000 dead bodies actually look like.

    Nor that without even a single capillary’s blush they’ve now repositioned climate corpses from the present continuous tense to the indeterminate future, keeping one step ahead of pop-Popperianism.

    Nor that such unrepentance is literally against the rules of science. After all the scientific method provides for specific penalties to be paid by the party whose hypothesis causes them to mischaracterize the empirical world (viz. “if your prediction is wrong, your hypothesis was wrong”).

    If it were a truth about the material world that climate change killed ten people a year, and I’m being generous there solo ad argumentum, Ken couldn’t care less if “credible” figures like Kofi Annan massaged this upwards by 299,990.

    But got forbid Jo Nova “present a model” that, if true, would mean only 7 people died last year, representing a denial of a whopping 30% of the science.

    THAT’S the kind of thing that’ll get Ken out of bed and down the Bat-pole to the KrusherMobile.

    2) Ken on one hand, and I (and hopefully you) on the other, want to defend different parts of this sentence:

    “the scientific consensus is that there is little evidence that extreme weather events have increased over the past hundred years”

    I don’t care, and I’d like to think you don’t care either, about the first 5 words of that sentence. I wouldn’t be caught dead “defending” such sub-scientific irrelevantia in a climate debate (though I’d conceivably take a position on it in a debate about group psychology).

    To Ken, the first five words are the ONLY territory that needs defending. If he can defend those, anything else he manages to hold on to is a lucky bonus.

    As long as Ken et al. have the Consensus on their side, they can live without any physical evidence, as they’ve proven (in much in the same way that certain species of fish can survive for up to 25 years with no access to a bicycle). If the evidence doesn’t support them, well, it’s the evidence’s loss.

    Like

  29. geoff chambers Avatar

    BRAD
    Much as I hate to disagree with you on a foreign blog, I’m not sure you’re allowed to state what’s going on in the mind of a fellow seeker after climate truth like Ken. Not unless you’re a licenced cognitive psychologist, communicator, or expert in exoplanets.

    I thought you knew me well enough by now to realise that my reference to the scientific consensus was a little giftwrapped (or Gift eingepackt) Potlatch peace pipe to Dr Physics “solo ad argumentum” (or all alone talking to himself.)

    KEN PHYSICS
    Congratulations. You and I seem to have found a point of agreement in that neither of us accept that the word of the IPCC is Gospel. Should we tell Jennifer that an exception to her rule has been found, or should we slope off together and find an abandoned railway carriage where we can continue our negotiations?

    Like

  30. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Ben

    It turns out that ‘credibility’ has nothing to do with ‘credibility’.

    Bingo.

    What’s the most damaging thing a person can do to her own credibility? What single thing constitutes credibility suicide more than any other?

    Ask anyone with half a brain, and he’ll say you lose credibility by:

    Getting caught lying.

    (So, for example, every time John Cook has been caught lying, he’s forfeited whatever credibility he may have had with the people who weren’t paying attention last time he got caught.)

    Ask someone who DOESN’T have a complete cerebral hemisphere to play with, and they might say you lose credibility by:

    Presenting some special solar climate model that would explain global warming as being pre-dominantly due to the Sun.

    (So, for example, in their bizarro mental model, Jo Nova can only look up in impotent envy at Peter Gleick’s or Michael Mann’s or John Cook’s credibility, because Ken can’t recall John Cook ever presenting some special solar climate model that would explain global warming as being pre-dominantly due to the Sun.)

    Ken srsly, srsly doesn’t understand why he’s right to say there’s ‘a huge disparity in the credibility’ of Jo Nova’s versus John Cook’s blogs, but wrong about the direction.

    ‘Credibility,’ mind you, as we both know, belongs to the lexicon of social proof, along with ‘consensus, respectable, serious, taken seriously, laughed off stage if you tried to present that model in the postgrad seminar i teach, every scientific body of international or national standing affirms, crank, I think you’ll find this confirmed by just about any legitimate person you ask,’ etc.

    Such words are beneath the contempt of scientists, or at least they were until they were Gavaged and Mannaged and Lewaged down their throats by the modern ‘science communicator’ profession.

    Science, as we both know, only cares about ‘plausibility, probability, likelihood, confidence, significance, error, deviance’ and other words whose formal meaning is (tragically) above the paygrade even of people with three quarters of a brain.

    Our opponents, in their ongoing policy of malign neglect when it comes to the scientific method, have slowly but pervasively corrupted the language of public science (to the extent that it was ever pristine) by smuggling in words like ‘credibility’ for use as weapons.

    And after all that effort, they can’t even get credibility RIGHT. They miseducate large swathes of the public into believing in all innocence that science is decided by credibility, and THEN what do they do? They trot out as their spokesmodels the very persons who most closely approximate the ideal of ANTI-credibility: liars and forgers and decline-hiders and tobacco millionaires.

    The ineptitude is hilarious—or at least it was for the first decade.

    Like

  31. Ben Pile Avatar
    Ben Pile

    Brad

    Believers don’t choose to visit Denier sites.

    It’s not entirely true. As linked to above, my first contact the Keeping the Conversation Civil (TM) project was on my own blog. It was also my first contact with the notion of ‘credibility’ as the precondition of taking your own arguments about a thing seriously, as it would seem anathema to thinking at all, if you thought about it, which seems to be the point — not thinking about it, but taking it for granted, and obeying. Which raises the question of how to become credible.

    I have asked the author of the project many times what he thinks he wants to achieve by telling people that they lack ‘civility’ and ‘credibility’ — terms which seem most of the time to mean gritted teeth and missing the point. The only motivation I have been able to ascertain is that this species of believer appears precisely when there is a possibility of a dialogue between ‘publics’ — that someone who does not deserve it might be made to appear credible by someone else taking their argument seriously.

    Believers also visit deniers sites to gather data on denial. The most famous example of which was in my view Professor Lewandowsky’s visit to Bishop Hill, to harvest comments, such as Geoff’s (from above), which went into the database of conspiracy theories with climate scientist Richard Betts’ comments. Psychology being a harder science than meteorology, then, Professor Lew got to assess both the civility and credibility of the climate scientist’s intervention — a feat he surpassed a few years later when he damned the entire field of climate science, which he accused of having been infected by ‘denier memes’.

    That’s where the Gateway Belief model gets you. It’s a slippery slope to its own form of climate science denial. And the denial of so much more besides.

    What believers want, in general, is obedience. What deniers want, in general, is debate. But the precondition of debate is some kind of equal standing that believers — on campuses, in news media, in civil society, in politics, and in “science” — are not prepared to extend to deniers. This precludes dialogue.

    Like

  32. geoff chambers Avatar

    JENNI METCALFE
    “for Skeptical Science most of these commenters made very technical comments that an average layperson would not understand.”

    I think this is to misunderstand the nature of blogs. Even if a very popular blog like SkepticalScience reached a million people, that would barely amount to 0.2% of the population of the English-speaking world. But that would be a significant proportion of the interested population. A survey of readers at BishopHill, which was at the time the main British climate sceptic blog, showed that a large proportion (about 40% I think) had science PhDs. These are the people that you, or John Cook, or Dr Physics, need to persuade first. SkepticalScience is quite right to keep its comments technical.

    “perhaps ‘gone bad’ was an unfortunate turn of phrase, especially given the nature of good and evil appears to be mostly subjective.”

    If ‘gone bad’ was an unfortunate turn of phrase, ‘good and evil’ is hardly an improvement. I couldn’t tell you off-hand how many domain experts would agree with you that “the nature of good and evil appears to be mostly subjective.” Friedrich Nietzsche, the 17th century English Ranter Ebenezer Coppe, and certain early Christian heretics spring to mind, but none of them produced peer-reviewed articles, and their views are pretty marginal. If you don’t think that Jo Nova has “gone bad,” by disagreeing with certain views of the scientific “consensus,” what exactly do you think she has done?

    Like

  33. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Jennifer,

    Is it just me, or is this post officially preaching to the Satanists? 😉

    We’ve even got a token choirboy—the exceptional Mr Rice—to prove the rule!

    LOL

    Like

  34. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Ben

    reluctant as I am to add my reverb to this skeptical echo-chamber, your comments are brilliant so far.

    “as though debate itself was apostasy.”

    But there’s no “as though” about it!

    Remember that the Hoofnagi—the Brothers Hoofnagle, the double-threat physiologist-lawyer symbiote—explicitly define denialism as debatalism.

    Our opponents’ elision of debate —> denial makes perfect sense. They know their belief system is indefensible in a contest of ideas. If they couldn’t figure out how abortive it was a priori, they must have figured it out a posteriori, just by witnessing the utter rout that is the robust conclusion of the few debates they’ve made the mistake of agreeing to.

    And OF COURSE we deniers want to debate. Apart from anything else, it’s self-serving.

    We know exactly the same thing our opponents do: in an open contest of ideas, climate skepticism will beat climate catastrophism every time.

    We’re not even in the same weight class.

    Like

  35. geoff chambers Avatar

    BRAD
    I think you owe it to our hostesses to explain the sense of your technical terms “Gavage,” Mannage,” “Lewage.”

    “..every time John Cook has been caught lying, he’s forfeited whatever credibility he may have had…”

    But is that true? The first time, I believe, was when he was found to have dressed up as an SS Officer and photographed himself as such. He wasn’t even born in 1945.

    The second time of which I’m aware was when he published the Debunking Handbook with Professor Lewandowsky, (see “Lewage” above) claiming that it was a scientific answer to Jo Nova’s highly successful work. But since it was advertised as a work of propaganda, does that count as lying? Lewandowsky and his protégé Cook have never disguised the fact that their publications are political propaganda, declaring since at least 2010 that the reason for emphasising the idea of consensus was to profit from the scientifically established fact that people are more likely to believe something that most other people believe (the Pied Piper Effect.) It worked for Big Oil, why shouldn’t it work for Cook and SkepticalScience?

    The third time Cook lied was when he emailed me to ask me how I liked living in France, and tell me about his French grandmother, and insisted that he had posted something he hadn’t about a survey by his co-author Professor Lewandowsky.

    And the fourth time of which I’m aware was when he lied to his co-author Professor Lewandowsky about the same survey.

    Sorry, I haven’t been paying attention since 2012. Perhaps Jenni and Dr Physics can fill us in?

    Like

  36. Thomas Fuller Avatar
    Thomas Fuller

    We live in a world where Barack Obama, James Hansen and the environmental journalist Andrew Revkin have been called deniers by people like Naomi Oreskes and Greg Laden. Any use it may once have had has dissipated through over- and mis-use.

    The debate has pretty much consisted of skeptics and lukewarmers like myself pointing out real or imagined errors and inconsistencies on the part of the consensus and consensus defenders call us names, deleting or calling for the deletion of our posts and comments wherever possible and the creation of hate lists or blacklists or whatever you want to call it labeling people as anti-science, mostly without providing examples of why.

    Those of us on the skeptic/lukewarmer side of the fence make numerous mistakes–most of us are not climate scientists. But the best of our points have held up over the years. On the other hand, the non-climate scientists supporting the consensus have had to steadily retreat from outlandish statements without (of course) ever admitting they have done so.

    I attempted to critique climate blogs some years ago, pairing up sites of similar scope and activity. My conclusion was that much of the variation was due to moderation and quality of comments and that the different policies advantaged (for the most part) skeptic blogs.

    Jo Nova is not anti-science. She is a partisan who seizes on the sections of science that support her position. And there is no shortage of published science that does make a skeptical position reasonable to hold. Much of it in the various Assessment Reports of the IPCC.

    As this is exactly what SkS does, it seems a bit cheekier to disparage Nova’s efforts than to talk about the Sun and the Earth and their various rotationary roles.

    Like

  37. geoff chambers Avatar

    BEN PILE
    Correct me if I”m wrong, but I think we can all sympathise with JENNI’s disappointment that there is so little cross-fertilisation at “climate” blogs. In order to aid any future research, I’d like to indicate a few blogs where “pro-science” bloggers and denialists used to battle it out in all fairness.

    First stop, the Conversation, a site for university types read by several million qualified people, financed by Nottingham University among others. If you go to
    https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-cook-3280/articles
    You will find 35 articles by John Cook, founder of SkepticalScience. And under these articles, believers and sceptics used to discuss more or less amicably the pros and cons, before the Conversation changed the rules.

    When I wrote the above, I knew that the Conversation had established a policy a year or two ago of banning all comments that didn’t agree with the “consensus.” So I clicked at random on a Cook article from the past (2016):
    https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-fossil-fuelled-climate-denial-61273
    where I was pretty sure that I would find the kind of joust that Jenni regrets doesn’t exist.

    What I didn’t know was that the Conversation (financed by the University of Nottingham, among others) seems to have retrospectively edited comments.
    The article indicates 108 comments, but only about 40 are visible, including a few “denialist” ones from, among others, our cliscep brother Paul Matthews. The other 70 or so have been removed, and replaced by the announcement:

    ”This comment has been automatically flagged for inspection by a moderator.”

    Note: not “removed,” or “censored,” but simply “flagged.” Four years later, we are still waiting for the moderator to inspect the comments and judge whether they should be removed or not. In the meantime, we can’t see them.

    JENNI
    Your research seems to imply that climate believers and sceptics are incapable of interacting. There is evidence that this is not true. This evidence is being suppressed by a site financed by your university. I suggest that, in order to further your research into the possibility of interaction between climate believers and deniers, you suggest to your university that they encourage the Conversation, a website which they finance, to stop their censorship and allow the world access to the conversation which is happening ((or has happened) at the Conversation.

    Because really, I can’t think of anything similar which has happened in Europe since abut 1933. I mean – dozens of universities financing an unelected blogsite, which takes a position on a particular interpretation of predictions of future global temperatures and censors alternative views. It’s not as if the Conversation has won 30% of the vote in the Reichstag, after all.

    Like

    1. Brigitte Nerlich Avatar

      I am Brigitte, not Jenni, but I THINK Jenni’s research did no “imply that climate believers and sceptics are incapable of interacting”. It showed that commenters underneath two different blogs showed little interaction between themselves as commenters, that is to say, similar patterns of commenter behaviour were found underneath each blog.

      Like

  38. Brad Keyes Avatar

    Geoff,

    I wonder if the reason you say it’s difficult to perceive John Cook’s forfeiture of his credibility every time he’s caught lying might not be that you only have to catch him once and the hymen of the temple is rent asunder, and the loom of Arachne herself cannot revirginate it in time for Cook’s next lie.

    At the risk of stating the obvious, this model is analogous to Futurama, when Fry was struck amidships by a beam of flouro green radiation. “Ow! My sperm!” he whined. Then the inguinal ray hit him again and he shrugged, “Didn’t hurt that time.”

    You remind us—and future historians—that:

    Lewandowsky and his protégé Cook have never disguised the fact that their publications are political propaganda, declaring since at least 2010 that the reason for emphasising the idea of consensus was to profit from the scientifically established fact that people are more likely to believe something that most other people believe (the Pied Piper Effect.) It worked for Big Oil, why shouldn’t it work for Cook and SkepticalScience?

    Thank you for bearing witness.

    This is the point where Lew & sons officially declare the undeclared war they’ve been waging on science for years.

    All of modern science, all three centuries plus of it, is predicated, implicitly and too obviously for words, on the abhorrence of any such stratagem. That’s why scientists (real ones, in ALL the non-pathological fields) neither fill in opinion surveys nor fill them out. That’s why the only people’s opinions you’ll find quantified and percentagized and histogrammed when you google ‘scientific consensus’ happen to be quote-unquote scientists working in the same field who happen to be working on the same one hypotheses.

    Of all the hypotheses that have been formulated and tested and discarded or confirmed in the history of modern science, the ONLY ONE we’ve been asked to believe in the basis of 9 out of 10 cats is AGW, albeit phrased differently each time (but close enough for government work).

    If it were scientifically legal to persuade or “communicate science” using the Pied Piper effect then googling ‘scientific consensus’ would lead you on a virtual tour of the history of scientific hypotheses, MILLIONS of them, each of which triumphantly colonized the collective mind of the scientists on the back of an opinion survey.

    It doesn’t, because it’s ILLEGAL in science to win arguments by peer pressure.

    This is what concerns me about the tendency in this discussion towards what I call ‘false balance.’ It is exemplified in Tom’s otherwise brilliant remarks above:

    “As this is exactly what SkS does,” Tom writes of what Jo Nova does.

    They may (or may not) be equal and opposite partisans in a scientific-article pillow-fight. HOWEVER, Jo Nova has never to my knowledge gone out of her way to subvert the public understanding of HOW SCIENCE WORKS by pretending opinion polls on scientists are any part of that process. John Cook has rarely let a week go by WITHOUT effortfully propagating that anti-scientific myth.

    So Ken is right about one thing (yes, it’s that time of day), after some edits for basic scientific literacy:

    “there’s a risk that some might interpret [Tom’s comments] as implying some kind of equivalence, when – in my view – there is a vast difference in terms of the truthfulness of the claims made by the two sites” about the workings of science, a topic that make that of *the workings of the climate” seem jejune, trivial, academic and soporific.

    There’s a risk that merely by elevating anti-science blogs like SkS to a position of comparability with science blogs like Jo’s, such comparisons may give the impression that SkS is basically a trustworthy resource put out by more-or-less honest human beings, whereas in fact there is a radical chasm between the essential probity of Jo Nova’s blog and the deceitful, demagogic agenda of John Cook’s.

    The equivalentist doctrine can thus only do the public a grave disservice, by whitewashing the deceptive function of one blog while reducing the other to its level.

    It’s high time we stopped giving SkS and its believalist stablemates the oxygen of what scientifically-unsophisticated people like to call “scientific credibility.” There can be no room at the grownups’ table for bad actors.

    Like

  39. John Ridgway Avatar
    John Ridgway

    Professor Nerlich,

    In respect of Professor Metcalfe’s comment regarding the importance of communicating the consensus science ‘simply and clearly’, and your subsequent comment alluding to the distinction between ‘science communicator and activist’, I would like, if I may, to say the following regarding the question of clarity and its role in forming said distinction.

    Back in the 1950s the greatest existential threat facing the Western world was perceived to emanate from the Soviet Union. There was considerable uncertainty regarding the scale of that threat, since little was known about the size of the Soviet Union’s nuclear arsenal. The hawks within the US government chose to apply the precautionary principle (not yet referred to as such) and assumed that the Soviets’ arsenal was such that a massive increase in the US arsenal would be required in order to provide an adequate deterrence. Those who lobbied for such an increase wished to leave nothing to chance, and so ensured that policy document NSC-68 overstated the case. As Dean Acheson, then Secretary of State for the Truman government, wrote later:

    “The purpose of NSC-68 was to so bludgeon the mass mind of the top government that not only could the President make a decision, but that the decision would be carried out… If we made our points clearer than the truth, we did not differ from most other educators and could hardly do otherwise.”

    So my answer to the question regarding when a communicator becomes an activist is as follows: You have overstepped the line once your message has become clearer than the truth.

    As a footnote to history, the hawks got their way and, as a result, they massively increased the level of existential threat that the world now faces. But that is the sort of thing that can happen when messages become clearer than the truth. Let us hope that IPCC AR5, and those engaged in climate science communication, are not so ‘clear’ that they emulate NCS-68 by encouraging inappropriate levels of investment in a course of action that actually heightens the risk.

    Like

    1. Brigitte Nerlich Avatar

      I did not make the distinction between science communicator and activist. That distinction was made by Barry. In my view making that distinction is fraught with difficulties and there have been many debates about science/activist issues in the past, which I really don’t want to revisit. As for communicating mainstream science. I think there comes a point when something really is mainstream and findings are pretty clear. Not communicating that mainstream science would be unethical I think. But in the end its a judgement call and it all depends on whom you trust to speak ‘the truth’ whatever that may be, a word by the way that I would avoid in this situation, as there are still uncertainties in some corners of climate science and everybody knows that there are and nobody is hiding them and science communicators are also aware of them them…https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0606-6.

      Like

  40. Ben Pile Avatar
    Ben Pile

    Correct me if I”m wrong, but I think we can all sympathise with JENNI’s disappointment that there is so little cross-fertilisation at “climate” blogs.

    I go further than that. Much further than that. I explain my disappointment that blogs are the ONLY place where there is any conversation at all. I also explain that debate is possible, and indeed happens, when the possibility of such a discussion is not detected and then disrupted by Consensus Enforcers, but that they are prolific. I also hint at the possibility that academic interests too frequently tend to indulge the impulse to control what they observe. Studies from the last decade on the media, for instance such as James Painter from the Reuters Institute “for” “Journalism” at Oxford University, were used to argue for putting more pressure on editors and press regulators. It is exclusive academic signatures which appear on LSE-headed notepaper when unauthorised opinions have found their way onto Radio 4’s Today Programme, urging the broadcaster not to ever let it happen again, lest it “risk” lending the non “credible” speaker undue “credibility” — especially when that speaker is sitting opposite a climate “scientist”.

    Hence I suggest that if Jenni is disappointed by the dearth of productive debate, she should shift the focus of her research. But I also suggest that this is likely to produce the result that her research is no longer supported.

    There have been interesting experiments with conversation and debate. Though it is interesting that the notion of debate has to be regarded as ‘experimental’ at this stage in history. The Dutch government for a time financed Marcel Crok’s Climate Dialog project. https://www.mwenb.nl/climate-dialogue/

    Also noteworthy, when Donald Trump took office, outrage was provoked from the suggestion within his ranks that there should be a red-team-blue-team approach to help determine the USA’s way forward. It came to nought, however — perhaps because of the uncooperative nature of just one of those teams. The consequence was the unilateral decision to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement, exposing and deepening the geopolitical fissures that the UNFCCC process was seemingly intended to overcome.

    It is not deniers who deny the possibility of dialogue across lines of disagreement.

    Like

  41. ...and Then There's Physics Avatar

    John,
    The more interesting issue (in my view) is not whether or not they made a decision under uncertainty that ended up (in retrospect) being one that we might now not have made, but whether or not the uncertainty was justified. Did they really not know enough to make a more informed decision, or was the supposed uncertainty used to justify their preferred option?

    Like

  42. ...and Then There's Physics Avatar

    Ben,
    Can I clarify what you seem to be suggesting? Are you actually suggesting that you would like there to be more debate/dialogue between those who disagree about this topic?

    Like

  43. Ben Pile Avatar
    Ben Pile

    Geoff, I forgot to tag you in that reply. I have hit the reply button, but I am not sure this comment will appear under that one, either.

    Thinking some more about what Painter’s “academic” motivation was… I can remember briefly wondering at the time if his nervousness about the press exposing the dynastic nature of environmentalism — Painter had married into the Tickell family, every member of which since Sir Crispin, who persuaded Thatcher of the cause, is on the climate gravy train. The British upper classes had perhaps at last found a useful role in the world: saving it. But that conceit is no newer than hand-wringing about the “risks” that might be created if “some might interpret” words published by a free press, or latterly, a free broadcast media in the wrong way. That has always been the basis on which the press and autonomous public institutions have been regulated, and/or ultimately been absorbed into either the state or Church.

    The vulnerable minds of the lower orders are always the concern of their superiors — well since the former learned to read, anyhow. Literacy is the great leveller. Science is nearly as levelling, though it was the late Robert May who died last week, who turned that ethic — on the word of no one — into ‘respect the facts’. If you read his words carefully, followed by the words of his successor, it turns out that they believe scientific literacy to be problematic. It risks (that word, again), the unauthorised expression of opinion as well as the unauthorised development of hypotheses and technologies. Hence, the emphasis on institutional science as the custodian of the facts (which are to be respected), rather than on the scientific method, hitherto the leveller.

    President Rees put his money where his mouth is, and made a bet with Steven Pinker that by the end of this year, either bioerror or bioterror will have caused more than a million deaths in a single event. There are many conspiracy theorists working that angle right now, betting on the origins of covid-19 in a Wuhan laboratory, though the body count is still well shy of his prognostication.

    But even if Rees wins his bet, and the conspiracy theorists are right, it will not be because science was opened up to the hoi polloi, in an atmosphere of political transparency, debate, freedom, and the rest. Those are not the characteristics of the CCP. Rees makes an argument for not doing science, against scientific literacy, for shutting the doors and closing the gate. It’s too dangerous. Plus ca change.

    If it’s not the case that institutional science is antithetical to science, it is arguably that high-minded pompous pricks are. I think we should be wary of aristocracies, and we should be free to attack their claim to be custodians of the facts, even if it “risks” some people getting the wrong end of the stick. Better that than just that, Ken — using the stick to beat people with. Clear enough for you?

    Like

  44. ...and Then There's Physics Avatar

    Clear enough for you?

    Not really, at least not in the sense that I can see it as an answer to my question (I’m not quite sure if you were trying to answer my question, though). FWIW, I find calling people pr*cks quite early in a discussion to be a particularly poor way of encouraging debate/dialgue. YMMV, of course.

    Like

  45. Ben Pile Avatar
    Ben Pile

    ATTP: “I find calling people pr*cks quite early in a discussion to be a particularly poor way of encouraging debate/dialgue.”

    I see that you would say that. But I saw you speak about unauthorised opinions, and that you have for a long time now, emphasised “credibility”. I don’t believe the concept to be any more civil.

    The word “prick” has a long standing historical usage, particular to debates of this kind. From the first English translation of the Bible, since we are discussing literacy vs authority, after all:

    And he said, Who art thou, Lord? And the Lord said, I am Jesus whom thou persecutest: it is hard for thee to kick against the pricks.

    Some of us are resistant to being goaded (pricked) into deference and obedience by this word “credibility”, and will not be cowed by hand-wringing about the ‘risks’ created by the expression of unauthorised opinions. I think that resistance is beyond your ken, Ken, as are very many things that self-appointed clergy speak for. I don’t care for your view of what does or does not make for a good conversation: I have seen you and your colleagues sabotage very many of them.

    Like

  46. ...and Then There's Physics Avatar

    I don’t care for your view of what does or does not make for a good conversation:

    Yes, obviously. I wouldn’t expect anything different.

    I have seen you and your colleagues sabotage very many of them.

    Quite possibly, but I’m not sure why that somehow justifies you doing the same. Each to their own, of course.

    Some of us are resistant to being goaded (pricked) into deference and obedience by this word “credibility”,

    Well, yes, I can see that you have no interest in credibility.

    Like

  47. Ben Pile Avatar
    Ben Pile

    Briggitte :

    I did not make the distinction between science communicator and activist. That distinction was made by Barry. In my view making that distinction is fraught with difficulties and there have been many debates about science/activist issues in the past, which I really don’t want to revisit.

    I do. And I don’t think it is so difficult. Moreover, I think that if it is the case that not communicating […] mainstream science would be unethical, it would be unethical, by the same token, to fail point out that ‘mainstream science’ appears to be heavily influenced by ideological, rather than scientific precepts.

    Here, I take a look at Gavin Schmidt’s claim that the danger of climate change is that all human industrial society has been built on the basis of an extremely narrow range of climate conditions, and that thus it will fall apart when it’s slightly warmer, wetter, whatever. I also suggest that this seemingly highly scientistic perspective –leaving aside the eco-mysticism — is a framing that is particular to the late 20th, early 21st century political landscape. The point being that ‘risk’ is a recently politicised concept, to which institutional science, cast as “mainstream science”, has been recruited. “Science communicators”, then, often turn out to be fear mongers.

    http://www.climate-resistance.org/2015/01/advocating-the-science-cake-and-politicising-it.html

    This is pertinent to the research in question, because criticism of it posited that to give ‘false balance’ lends undue ‘credibility’ to a claim — that research and debate that failed to prefigure, or failed to discriminate prior to comparing mere venues for discussion, let alone the arguments produced in them, creates risks. Risks, which it falls on institutional science to manage, of course.

    Like

  48. John Ridgway Avatar
    John Ridgway

    Professor Nerlich,

    Thank you for your response. I apologise if you felt I was misattributing but I only said you had ‘alluded’ to the distinction, which you clearly had.

    On more important matters, you are quite correct in emphasising the important role that uncertainty plays when evaluating the epistemic value of a consensus. It is in uncertain situations that false clarity is often sought to support the decision-making process. As for the decisions required by our understanding of climate science, there are still significant uncertainties that are central to them. For example, I could cite the wide range of uncertainty in the stated range of ECS, an uncertainty that could hardly be referred to as existing “in some corners of climate science”. Furthermore, the claim that “nobody is hiding them and science communicators are also aware of them” could be missing the point. Sometimes hiding uncertainty can result in a clarity beyond truth, and sometimes the promotion of uncertainty has that effect. For example, please see:

    Click to access PhDThesisJeroenvanderSluijs1997.pdf

    Indeed, one has to be very careful making statements regarding the presence of uncertainties in climate science. By making such claims it is just too easy to run the risk of being clearer than the truth.

    Professor Rice,

    Thank you for your question.

    The uncertainty regarding the size of the Soviet arsenal in the 1950s was profound and real. I cite NSC-68 as an example because it was an ostensibly scientific document, providing advice to policy makers, that had sought to play down the uncertainties in order to influence the decisions made. The false certitude expressed in the document, combined with a rhetoric that was quite out of place, led to it being an instrument of advocacy rather than just an attempt to communicate the necessary information. For further information you might wish to consult ‘Armageddon and Paranoia – The Nuclear Confrontation’, by Rodric Braithwaite, former British ambassador to Moscow.

    Like

  49. geoff chambers Avatar

    Ben
    The Reply button doesn’t work. I didn’t know that about James Painter. I suppose for the Tickells and their kind, saving the planet from the people on it is a logical extension of the enclosures and World War One, which links to John’s point about World War Three..

    I see from the links in Jenni’s paper that Brigitte has written a whole paper
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2014.981560
    about comments to a Monbiot article, the one where he said the cold weather was due to global warming. Both you and I commented there, but I don’t think Brigitte noticed us. But her article is not about what anyone said, more the way they say it and why, and what can be done about it.

    We know what the Guardian has done about it – ban all comments which contradict the Guardian’s view of “what the science says.” Brigitte’s modestly optimistic conclusions about on-line debate have therefore been rendered pointless. I wonder if anyone’s written a paper about it.

    Like

    1. Brigitte Nerlich Avatar

      Sorry about the reply button, but I have no access to the system… The article you refer to was based on corpus linguistics, so did not home in on individual commenters; the system did not even reveal them. And, hélas, science, even applied linguistics, is a process. Findings are not timeless and universal. Things change. These findings pertained to this corpus extracted from a newspaper at that time and gave an insight into what happened in comments at that time.

      Like

  50. Ben Pile Avatar
    Ben Pile

    ATTP: “Quite possibly, but I’m not sure why that somehow justifies you doing the same. ”

    I’m not. And I never have. I rarely comment anywhere. Even at Cliscep.

    Like

Leave a reply to Barry Woods Cancel reply

Discover more from Making Science Public

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading